East Carolina vs. Tulane Prediction, Preview

East Carolina vs. Tulane Keys to Victory

1. Jake Retzlaff as a Rusher
The Pirates have done an excellent job of bottling up mobile quarterbacks. Though CJ Bailey, Bear Bachmeier and Dewayne Coleman each found the end zone on the ground, none of them made backbreaking plays with their legs. Will ECU be able to keep Retzlaff in check? He leads his team with 368 rushing yards, which ranks ninth nationally among quarterbacks. Retzlaff also has seven rushing scores on the year and two 100-yard games, though his rushing attempts have fallen off in recent weeks. Retzlaff has found success as a passer, but he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 2. In the red zone, Tulane counts on its quarterback — and freshman running back Javin Gordon — to finish off drives.

2. Protect Katin Houser
East Carolina has done an excellent job of keeping Houser upright, affording him time to distribute the ball downfield to a trio of capable receivers. Anthony Smith, Yannick Smith and Brock Spalding each have 20-plus catches and over 300 yards on the season. Houser has only taken four sacks in five games, one of the best marks in the country, but Tulane just recorded six sacks against Tulsa. The Green Wave struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks up to that point, but Harvey Dyson and Santana Hopper made their presence felt with 3 1/2 combined sacks and six tackles for loss. For as much as the Pirates rely on Houser to move the ball downfield, they still run the ball more often than not. Perhaps London Montgomery can get something going on the ground to open up play action for Houser, who has also scored a rushing touchdown in back-to-back games.

3. Capitalize on Takeaways
ECU and Tulane have both thrived on turnovers. The Green Wave have come up with 11 takeaways this season (six interceptions, five fumble recoveries), while the Pirates have forced nine (three interceptions, six fumble recoveries). They both take good care of the ball on offense, though Houser has committed four turnovers in his last two games, while Retzlaff has just two turnovers all season. Tulane’s regular takeaways consistently set the offense up with short fields, which is why the Green Wave rank first nationally in starting field position and net field position. ECU can’t afford to give Retzlaff and Co. any help on the road by putting its defense in a vulnerable position.

Score Prediction: Tulane 27, East Carolina 21

This game is going to come down to execution in the red zone. Both defenses are stingy inside the 20-yard line, but the Green Wave have the upper hand on offense with Retzlaff’s difference-making rushing abilities and an edge in the kicking game. The Pirates have struggled to come away with points down near the end zone, and they can’t afford any empty trips as a road underdog.

ATS: East Carolina +6.5
O/U: Under 53.5