ESPN computer predicts college football's best, worst teams in 2025

It’s that time of year again as we move into summer as preseason college football rankings start to trickle out, with the ESPN 136-team poll going live, leaving some fans with more questions than answers.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Taking those metrics into account, let’s take a look at the early predictions for what teams will be the best and worst in college football heading into the 2025 season.

The worst team in college football

That lamentable designation falls on Kent State, and with good reason.

Over the last two years under Kenni Burns’ leadership, the team is just 1-23 overall and has fared a dismal 0-16 against MAC competition. 

Last season, Kent State was outscored 529 to 167 and its defense allowed more than 44 points per game to opponents on average.

This time around, the index forecasts the Golden Flashes will be an FBS-worst 22.7 points worse than an average opponent and projects they will win just 2.6 games this fall.

On top of that, the Golden Flashes will have to find a way with a very new coach, after Burns was fired a few months before kickoff.

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The most average team(s) in college football

Sitting squarely in the middle of these preseason rankings is USF, coming off its second-straight 7-6 season in Alex Golesh’s second season as head coach.

Byrum Brown returns at quarterback after missing time last season with a knee injury, and you could tell the offense really needs him in place.

Brown has solid receiving targets like Keshaun Singleton and Jaden Alexis, and USF brought on transfers like Thomas Shrader and Connor McLaughlin to beef up the corps, but the Bulls’ defense was 118th nationally in total defense.

The computers project USF will be 0.8 points worse than an average opponent and are in line to win 6.9 games this season with a 76.5 percent chance to play in a bowl game.

The other most average team in college football appears to be Oklahoma State, which checks in at 0.3 points better than opponents and is expected to win 5.5 games.

That would be an improvement from a forgettable 3-9 outing a year ago that included an 0-9 mark in Big 12 play, but brings on something like 40 new players, and is debuting a completely new offensive line and quarterback.

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The best team in college football

While there isn’t exactly a consensus on who is No. 1 this preseason, serious analysts are starting to rally around Texas, which debuted in pole position in the ESPN rankings.

That’s quite a vote of confidence in part for Arch Manning, the former No. 1 overall recruit who wears that famous surname, but who hasn’t been given a forum to prove himself yet.

That changes this season, but it won’t all be on him. Texas should field a promising backfield led by Quintrevion Wisner, who ran for over 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns a year ago.

DeAndre Moore and Ryan Wingo spearhead an elite Longhorns receiving corps that will be a tremendous help for Manning’s development, and which added Stanford transfer Emmett Mosley, who scored 6 times while covering 525 yards as a freshman last season.

Defensively, the 2024 SEC runners-up return edge rusher Colin Simmons, who had 9 sacks a year ago, and arguably college football’s top linebacker, Anthony Hill, Jr., who had 8 sacks and 16.5 stops behind the line last fall.

What can we expect from Texas this season? ESPN’s computer models call it the SEC’s title favorite at 34.1 percent, the national title pick at 24.1 percent, and project it will win 10.4 games.

That’s equal to the index’s win total projection for Ohio State, which the Longhorns play in Week 1, but notably the computer gives Texas 2.1 losses compared to Ohio State’s 2.2, which could signal the models might favor the Horns over the Buckeyes in that game.

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