ESPN computer predicts Georgia vs. Tennessee game winner

Georgia and Tennessee face off this SEC opener to kick off college football’s Week 3 action. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Tennessee owns the longest win streak in this rivalry that dates back to 1899, winning nine straight games from 1989 to 1999, but Georgia owns the longest current streak, winning eight straight against the Volunteers, putting itself out in front in the series by a 29-23-2 margin all-time.

Both teams are predictably 2-0 coming into this game, and the winner this weekend will put itself one very important step ahead of the other in the SEC standings as both these programs have designs on the conference title and the College Football Playoff.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

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Georgia vs. Tennessee predictions

In a twist of fate this week, the models are projecting a big change in the course of this rivalry, with the home side expected to pull out a win, but by a narrow margin.

Tennessee is the current projected favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in the slim majority 51.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Georgia as the presumptive winner in the remaining 48.5 percent of sims.

In total, the Volunteers came out on top of the Bulldogs in 10,300 of the computer model’s simulations of the game, while Georgia edged out Tennessee in the other 9,700 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory for Big Orange? As the close sims would imply, this will come down to the narrowest possible score.

Tennessee is projected to be just 0.2 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would constitute an upset for the Vols over the Bulldogs.

That’s because Georgia is the 4.5 point favorite against Tennessee this week, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -178 and for Tennessee at +146 to win outright.

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Where the money is going

A slight majority of bettors are sticking with the reigning SEC champions to withstand this test on the road against their rivals.

Georgia is getting 56 percent of bets to win the game by at least four points and cover the narrow point spread to avoid its first loss of the season.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Tennessee will either upset the Bulldogs outright at home to stay undefeated, or lose the game by a field goal or less.

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Georgia vs. Tennessee future projections

Despite the Vols being favored over the Bulldogs in this game, the computer models are still siding with Kirby Smart’s team when it comes to national achievement later on.

Georgia places fourth among SEC teams with a 14.8 percent chance to win the conference championship for what would be a second-straight season.

Ole Miss (16.4%), Alabama (17.6%), and leader Texas (26.9%) are still in front of the Bulldogs, while the Vols place fifth just behind in the SEC title race.

Tennessee has a 12.6 percent chance to win the SEC Championship this season, according to the computer simulations of its future games.

Georgia is projected to win 9.1 games this season and is expected to be 20.3 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field by the model’s forecast.

Tennessee has the edge there, as the computer predicts UT will win 9.5 games in 2025.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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