ESPN computer predicts Miami vs. USF game winner

Miami and USF meet in college football’s Week 3 action in a game that looks much more interesting that it may have back during the preseason. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from a model that simulates games and picks winners.

Miami is a perfect 2-0 after a signature victory at home against top 10 ranked Notre Dame in a close three-point decision that showed Carson Beck can still lead an offense and put the Hurricanes in early ACC title contention right off the bat.

Beck is a 76 percent passer through two games while throwing 4 touchdowns while Mark Fletcher leads the side with 152 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns off 26 carries.

USF suddenly looks like the team to beat in the Group of Five after playing to not merely a 2-0 record, but one of the most impressive 2-0 records in the country.

South Florida pounded playoff quarterfinalist Boise State at home and then knocked off the 13th ranked Florida Gators on the road on a last-second field goal to become the only team in college football to beat two AP top 25 ranked opponents this season.

Can the Bulls do it a third time? Miami will have to be on guard against dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown and his primary target, wide receiver Keshaun Singleton, who has 2 touchdowns off 7 grabs over 168 yards in 2 outings.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

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Miami vs. USF prediction

What USF has done through two games is quite impressive, but still not enough to convince the index computer models, which still favor the Hurricanes at home.

Miami emerged as the consensus winner of the game in the majority 72.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves USF as the presumptive winner in the remaining 27.7 percent of sims.

In total, the Hurricanes came out on top in 14,460 of the computer’s projections of the game, while USF edged out Miami in the other 5,540 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Despite the Hurricanes owning the sims, the Bulls could still keep this one close.

Miami is projected to be just 6.2 points better than USF on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Canes to cover the spread this week.

That’s because Miami is a 17.5 point favorite against USF, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -780 and for USF at +530 to win outright.

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Where the money is going

A strong majority of bettors have faith in the Bulls to keep things close against the Hurricanes in this third game against a ranked opponent, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

USF is getting 70 percent of bets to either upset Miami outright or to at least keep the final margin under 18 points in a loss on the road.

The other 30 percent of wagers project Miami will hold the line at home and cover this big point spread by knocking off the Bulls by at least 18 points.

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Miami vs. USF future projections

After its strong start so far, Miami is the new leader in the ACC clubhouse when it comes to forecasting the conference championship picture.

Sitting in first place in the league, the Hurricanes have a projected 28.1 percent chance to play for and win the ACC Championship and take it away from Clemson.

The model forecasts the Hurricanes will win 9.4 games this season.

And it says they have a 34.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, ranking 11th in the country, according to the index model.

Notably, that puts them behind the Bulls in the playoff picture.

USF ranks just ahead of Miami with a 35.0 percent chance to make the postseason field, and is projected to win 10.1 games this season.

Those two early wins have the Bulls as the runaway favorite to represent the Group of Five’s automatic bid in the College Football Playoff entering Week 3 action.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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