ESPN computers predict the eight most competitive Week 2 college football games

For every single college football game, ESPN assigns a win probability as calculated by some voodoo computer metric magic. Many wind up in the 90-100 range, but each week, at least a handful fall into that competitive range closer to a 50-50 split.

Ahead of Week 2, we've compiled the eight tightest games of the weekend slate as predicted by ESPN. So, below, you can check out which games are most likely to produce some crazy fourth-quarter fireworks on Saturday. Starting with...

1. (11) Illinois at Duke | Duke: 50.4%

Illinois storms into Durham, North Carolina with the number 11 next to their name while ESPN lists the Illini as a 2.5-point favorite as of Friday morning. That's a curious line since ESPN's own metrics actually favor the Blue Devils by a sliver in their home stadium, so perhaps there's some value on the money-line with the home side.

The Illini returned starting quarterback Luke Altmeyer and several other notable pieces off a top-25 squad a year ago, then opened their year with a 52-3 beatdown of Western Illinois. Meanwhile, Duke handled in-state foe Elon 45-17 last weekend.

2. Virginia at NC State | Virginia: 51.4%

Once again, we have Virginia with the edge on the road against the NC State Wolfpack according to the metrics, however, the Pack are actually the betting favorite per ESPN. That's the power of home field advantafge right there.

Virginia silenced doubters by throttling a Coastal Carolina squad last weekend that many folks believed could challenge the Cavaliers. But not to be. On the other hand, NC State also beat a Carolina squad, East Carolina, in their opener, winning 24-17.

3. Boston College at Michigan State | BC: 52.5%

Michigan State hasn't played football past November since 2021, back before Mel Tucker embroiled himself in scandal. Since, MSU has fallen on hard times and are even the underdogs at home in a Week 2 game against Boston College, at least according to the ESPN metrics.

However, ESPN didn't set their betting line that way, instead favoring the Spartans by 4.5 points. That's a sizeable discrepancy between spread and analytical prediction, but again, that could just be a reflection of ESPN's strong belief in a home field advantage.

4. (15) Michigan at (18) Oklahoma | OU: 53.5%

It's nice to see the biggest matchup of the weekend also score high in competitive predictability. The visiting Wolverines are 5.5-point underdogs per ESPN while the analytics also give the Sooners a slight edge, but all signs point to a thrilling contest in Norman.

Michigan and true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood started strong with a win over New Mexico last weekend while senior transfer and first-year Oklahoma QB John Mateer also shined in his squad's 35-3 win over Illinois State. The veteran who's at home has the projected edge, but Underwood has the potential to issue a nation-wide wake-up call.

The Rest...

5. West Virginia at Ohio | WVU: 53.6%
6. Arizona State at Mississippi State | ASU: 54.1%
7. Texas State at UTSA | UTSA: 57.2%
8. San Diego State at Washington State | WSU: 58.5%

Well, how about West Virginia with some guts and going on the road to face the Ohio Bobcats out there in Athens, OH. Then, you have a Mississippi State squad that went 2-10 and lost every SEC game on their schedule a season ago but is projected to keep a tight game against No. 12 Arizona State.

Of course, we know the late-night Pac-12 feud between Washington State and future member San Diego State will provide madness in one context or another. As for Texas State at UTSA? You wouldn't want to miss out on the prime cut of meat off the American Conference slate in Week 2, either.