ESPN FPI Predicts Auburn's Game vs. Arkansas

For the fifth week in a row, the Auburn Tigers are not favored against an SEC opponent.

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the 2-5 Arkansas Razorbacks a 50.7 percent chance to defeat Auburn on Saturday, despite the team being 0-3 in SEC play and relying on an interim head coach in Bobby Petrino. Though it’s the closest margin Auburn’s seen since the Oklahoma game, it’s still far from the vote of confidence Auburn has been looking for.

And, it's not hard to see why ESPN's FPI favors the Razorbacks.

The Tigers are 0-4 against SEC teams, have been struggling immensely in the second half all while having little to no offense to speak of. 

Despite incredible defensive play, Auburn's offense ranks 15th in the SEC with 335 offensive yards per game, and 14th in the SEC with 5.1 yards per play. Out out of the 16 SEC teams, Auburn's offense is is ranked the second-worst in the conference, only ahead of South Carolina.

On the other side, Arkansas is averaging a whopping 513 offensive yards per game and 7.6 yards per play, the best in the SEC, and is ranked as the best offense in the conference. 

Defense will have to be the difference in the game for Auburn and, luckily for the Tigers, the defense is far from weak. Auburn's defense is ranked sixth-best in the conference, while its offense will have a chance to get things moving again against Arkansas’ 14th-ranked defense.

If Auburn’s offense wants to keep up with Arkansas’ top-ranked offensive attack, it’ll have to limit sacks above all else. The Tigers are the most-sacked team in the SEC, allowing 27 sacks through just seven games, which keeps the team behind the sticks and behind on the scoreboard.

Head coach Hugh Freeze has mentioned a factor that could flip this prediction on its head, one way or another; the team is preparing to allow another quarterback to take the helm amidst Jackson Arnold’s struggles. On deck for the Tigers is Ashton Daniels, followed by Deuce Knight, both of whom could find themselves making or breaking the game for the Tigers if Arnold can’t find his footing this Saturday.

Freeze is facing an almost certain win-or-get-fired situation this weekend, as the Tigers journey into Hog territory to take on the ESPN-favored Arkansas Razorbacks. The game will be played at 11:45 a.m. CST.

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