ESPN FPI Predicts Red-Hot Start for WVU Before Fizzling Out to End the Season

Originally posted on West Virginia Mountaineers on SI
By Schuyler Callihan | Last updated Aug 21, 2025 1:26 PM ET

You've heard and read about our predictions; now it's time to do our annual check-in on the computer projections the ESPN FPI has for West Virginia in 2025.

What the ESPN FPI says for each game (% = WVU's chance to win)

8/30 vs. Robert Morris - 99.1%

9/6 at Ohio - 63.9%

9/13 vs. Pitt - 56%

9/20 at Kansas - 19.9%

9/27 vs. Utah - 50.9%

10/3 at BYU - 18.5%

10/18 at UCF - 33.1%

10/25 vs. TCU - 43.7%

11/1 at Houston - 50.7%

11/8 vs. Colorado - 53%

11/15 at Arizona State - 16.3%

11/29 vs. Texas Tech - 44.2%

The game the FPI should have the Mountaineers favored in

at UCF - I don't care if this game was played on the moon, West Virginia will come out on top. The Knights are going to have one heck of a time in 2025, and although they're in a similar situation to WVU, it's not exactly a Spider-Man meme situation. UCF was still trying to accumulate Big 12-caliber depth with Gus Malzahn and now just hit the reset button.

The game the FPI should have the Mountaineers as the underdog

vs. Utah - Look, I get it's at home and Utah is coming east, which is always a tough travel in football for whatever reason. But Kyle Whittingham always has a stingy defense, and that typically travels well. The offense with OC Jason Beck and QB Devon Dampier should be much improved, making the Utes a legitimate threat to compete for a Big 12 title.

Overall thoughts

If we go based on their chances to win each game, WVU would go 6-6 with a win over Pitt. Can you really call that a disappointment in year one? I don't think so. Taking down a talented Utah team would also help provide optimism for the future. For the first time in years, I largely agree with the FPI's preseason predictions. The two games I listed above are the only ones I see as being wrong.

The FPI predicted WVU to go 6-6 last season and hit it right on the head, although they got some games wrong. Predicting a 6-6 record with a new staff and over 70 newcomers says a lot about the strength of the team they built over the offseason and the confidence the computers have in Rich Rodriguez.