ESPN FPI Reveals Team With Lowest Odds At National Championship

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Max Escarpio | Last updated Jan 3, 2025 7:16 PM ET

The College Football Playoff is headed to the semifinal round with four teams left in the pool: the Ohio State Buckeyes, Texas Longhorns, Penn State Nittany Lions and Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Following the quarterfinal round, ESPN updated its Football Power Index (FPI) rankings.

The ESPN FPI revealed the percentage odds of each team to win the national championship. While three teams are flying around the same odds, there's one outlier.

Notre Dame is currently the favorite at 29.2% while Ohio State trails at 28.3% and Texas lands at No. 3 with a 27.0% chance of winning the national title.

Penn State has the lowest odds of winning the national championship at 15.4%. ESPN's FPI system also gives the Nittany Lions a 40.1% chance to make the title game.

ESPN's FPI rankings are based on strength of schedule, team statistics and win probability.

Despite ESPN's odds, the Nittany Lions have been quite successful throughout the first two rounds of the College Football Playoff.

They've secured two blowout victories, defeating SMU 38-10 in the first round and Boise State 31-14 in the quarterfinal.

The Big Ten powerhouse is led by quarterback Drew Allar, who's recorded 24 touchdowns and 3,192 yards with a 67.4 completion percentage.

Penn State will now be facing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET in the Orange Bowl. The Nittany Lions enter the semifinal round as a 1.5-point underdog, per ESPN BET.

While they've proven to be successful throughout the early stages of the playoffs, behind Allar and company, it seems Penn State still has more to prove in the semifinals.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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