ESPN Insider Projects Tulane Football as Conference Favorite To Contend for Playoff

The Tulane Green Wave football team is hoping to return to the American Conference Championship for a third title and first under head coach Jon Sumrall.

The Green Wave will also look to be the second Group of Five team to land the expanded College Football Playoff spot over the Boise State Broncos.

All of that will come down to the games played on the field in the 2025 season, but as fall camp inches closer, season previews and preseason rankings will be abundant, and they've already begun.

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Bill Connelly of ESPN.com released a preview for the AAC and the presumed conference favorites, looking at factors such as returning production and performance in the 2024 season to make projections.

Tulane is fifth in the American Conference with 52 percent of returning production—49.0 on offense and 56.0 on defense.

They have 72 FBS starts from returning players, which is nowhere near the top of the conference.

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However, they lead the AAC with 114 FBS starts from incoming transfer portal players.

That, in tandem with their 2024 success, led Connelly to rank the Green Wave at the top of his projections using his SP+ rankings.

The SP+ rankings are a predictive model that accounts for returning production, recruiting prowess, and recent team history.

In his subsequent conference title projections, he found that five teams are within an 11.7 to 16.6 shot, with Tulane holding the highest chances.

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That's not much separation between them and the Memphis Tigers, UTSA Roadrunners, Navy Midshipmen, and Army Black Knights.

What should encourage Green Wave fans after decades of mediocre play is how Connelly refers to the powerhouse G5 programs.

"When we casually talk about the sturdiest G5 programs in the country, we're likely to start with Boise State, Memphis, and Tulane. The Green Wave are an assumed power at this point," Connelly wrote.

He notes that their recent rosters look closer to those from Power Four programs and how far that's gone in erasing the average 4.2 wins per year the program carried for 23 seasons from 1999 to 2021, when they finished 2-10.

That also comes at a cost, as those players are primed to be poached. Tulane lost eight starters to Power Four schools, including starting quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Makhi Hughes.

What's important is Tulane's response. The transfer portal haul that includes three quarterbacks and a stellar defensive line has covered up many wounds from portal departures.

That won't compensate for the caliber of Mensah's talent that was lost, and there's so much turnover that will test chemistry limits in Sumrall's second season.

However, he identifies depth in the trenches and recent success as the strongest factors contributing to a presumed conference title run.

For more Tulane news, head over to Tulane Green Wave On SI.