Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN: Michigan football has a 6% chance to win the Big Ten in 2025

Originally posted on Michigan Wolverines on SI
By Trent Knoop | Last updated Jun 4, 2025 10:11 AM ET

Michigan football finished 8-5 last season, but expectations around Ann Arbor are quite high heading into the 2025 season. The Wolverines ended the season in 2024 with big wins against rival Ohio State and Alabama in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Michigan also had a top recruiting class after landing five-star QB Bryce Underwood, who is expected to lead the charge for the Wolverines.

It wasn't too long ago that Michigan made its living in the Big Ten. From 2021-23, the Wolverines won three-straight Big Ten titles, made three College Football Playoff appearances, and won the entire thing in 2023. But with the Connor Stalions' saga, it feels like it was ages ago to some fans.

But 2025 is a new year, and there are new analytics out showing the probability Michigan has to not only make it back to the National Championship Game, but to win the Big Ten, and get into the College Football Playoff.

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) came out for every college football team entering 2025, and Michigan football came in at No. 17 overall.

Here's the breakdown on the percentages ESPN gives the Wolverines:

Projected win/loss in 2025: 8.4-3.7
Win out %: 0.6%
6+ win%: 94.2%
Win Conference: 6%
Make CFP: 25.3%
Make National Championship Game: 2.6%
Win National Title: 1%

Getting into the College Football Playoff is much easier in today's day and age compared to just two seasons ago when Michigan won the entire thing. The Wolverines had to of been one of the top four teams in the country, compared to the top 12 (including one Group of Five school). The Wolverines' schedule is much favorable in 2025 than it was in 2024 -- especially in the Big Ten.

Nobody knows what Michigan is going to look like until it takes the field this fall, but the Wolverines are bound to have a much more prolific offense compared to last year. Michigan had the 131st-ranked passing attack, and with Underwood, along with new OC Chip Lindsey -- that will only go up.

The Big Ten is a gauntlet with Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon, along with others, but Michigan isn't going to be an easy out in 2025.

This article first appeared on Michigan Wolverines on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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