ESPN predicts every Utah football game in 2025

ESPN has released its matchup predictions for every regular-season contest on the Utes' schedule, using its in-house analytics database to determine the win probability of all 12 games on Utah's calendar.

ESPN gives the Utes a 50% win probability rate or better in five games this season, including three against Big 12 teams.

ESPN's matchup predictions are surely to change as the 2025 campaign progresses, though out of the gate, the Utes don't exactly have the easiest path to the conference title game in December. In fact, Utah's strength of schedule checks out as the third-toughest among Big 12 constituents, according to ESPN FPI.

Here's a closer look at ESPN's projections for Utah this season.

Utah's chances of winning each game in 2025, per ESPN Analytics

• Aug. 30 at UCLA: 47.9%
• Sept. 6 vs. Cal Poly: 99%
• Sept. 13 at Wyoming: 84.5%
• Sept. 20 vs. No. 23 Texas Tech: 52.7%
• Sept. 27 at West Virginia: 49.1%
• Oct. 11 vs. No. 11 Arizona State: 41.6%
• Oct. 18 at BYU: 30%
• Oct. 25 vs. Colorado: 56.4%
• Nov. 1 vs. Cincinnati: 65.5%
• Nov. 15 at Baylor: 31.6%
• Nov. 22 vs. No. 17 Kansas State: 38.9%
• Nov. 28 at Kansas: 30%

Games the Utes are favored in, according to ESPN Analytics: Five out of 12.

• Highest win probability: Sept. 6 vs. Cal Poly (99%)
• Lowest win probability (tie): Oct. 18 at BYU, Nov. 28 at Kansas (30%)

Big 12 ESPN FPI Rankings

ESPN FPI rankings changed slightly since their debut in June, though only marginally as Utah checks in at No. 45 in the country after initially coming in at No. 46.

1. Kansas State (No. 18 nationally)
2. BYU (No. 22)
3. Arizona State (No. 24)
4. Kansas (No. 26)
5. Baylor (No. 28)
6. Iowa State (No. 33)
7. Texas Tech (No. 35)
8. TCU (No. 36)
9. UCF (No. 41)
10. Utah (No. 45)
11. Colorado (No. 48)
12. Cincinnati (No. 53)
13. West Virginia (No. 56)
14. Oklahoma State (No. 61)
15. Arizona (No. 66)
16. Houston (No. 70)

FPI strength of schedule rankings for Big 12

Utah has the third-toughest schedule of any Big 12 team in 2025. Admittedly, ESPN FPI starts to split hairs after No. 3.

1. Oklahoma State (No. 35 nationally)
2. TCU (No. 36)
3. Utah (No. 43)
4. West Virginia (No. 44)
5. UCF (No. 45)
6. Baylor (No. 48)
7. Iowa State (No. 50)
8. Arizona (No. 51)
9. Kansas (No. 53)
10. Kansas State (No. 54)
11. Texas Tech (No. 55)
12. Colorado (No. 56)
13. Cincinnati (No. 58)
14. Arizona State (No. 61)
15. BYU (No. 62)
16. Houston (No. 63)

Big 12 conference title probabilities

While some media members are quite bullish on the Utes, ESPN FPI gives them worse than a 2% chance of winning the Big 12 conference title this season.

1. Kansas State: 24.5%
2. Arizona State: 16.0%
3. BYU: 15.2%
4. Kansas: 11.7%
5. Baylor: 11.2%
6. Iowa State: 5.2%
7. Texas Tech: 4.1%
8. TCU: 3.8%
9. UCF: 2.8%
10. Utah: 1.8%
11. Colorado: 1.4%
12. Cincinnati: 1.3%
13. Oklahoma State: 0.4%
14. West Virginia: 0.3%
15. Arizona: 0.2%
16. Houston: 0.1%

College Football Playoff chances for Big 12

Similarly to its Big 12 title hopes, Utah is a long shot to make the College Football Playoff this season.

1. Kansas State: 27.0%
2. Arizona State: 18.9%
3. BYU: 17.8%
4. Kansas: 14.2%
5. Baylor: 12.5%
6. Iowa State: 6.6%
7. Texas Tech: 5.3%
8. TCU: 4.9%
9. UCF: 4.3%
10. Utah: 2.3%
11. Colorado: 1.6%
12. Cincinnati: 1.5%
13. Oklahoma State: 0.5%
14. West Virginia: 0.4%
15. Arizona: 0.2%
16. Houston: 0.1%

Big 12 teams' chances of reaching a bowl game

Despite having a 50% or better win probability rate in just five games, Utah has favorable chances of making a bowl game (winning at least six games) in 2025.

1. Kansas State: 97.9%
2. Arizona State: 97.8%
3. BYU: 97.5%
4. Kansas: 94.8%
5. Texas Tech: 91.0%
6. Baylor: 88.4%
7. UCF: 86.0%
8. Iowa State: 83.4%
9. TCU: 74.7%
10. Colorado: 70.9%
11. Utah: 68.4%
12. Cincinnati: 66.0%
13. West Virginia: 49.7%
14. Houston: 42.8%
15. Oklahoma State: 42.1%
16. Arizona: 34.9%

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