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ESPN SP+ Computer Model Predicts Final Score of Notre Dame-Texas A&M

Originally posted on Athlon Sports
By Kevin Matthew Borba | Last updated Sep 9, 2025 1:33 PM ET

One of the biggest games of the Week 3 college football slate will feature two of the biggest brands in the sport.

Just one year after they went into College Station and beat them 23-13, the No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-1) will be hosting the No. 16 Texas A&M (2-0) Aggies on Saturday.

The Fighting Irish are coming off a bye week after opening the season with a heartbreaking loss to Miami, while for Texas A&M, this game marks their first true test of the season. The Aggies opened the year against UTSA and Utah State, but will now see how they stack up against one of the perceived top teams in the sport.

With the oddsmakers at ESPN BET favoring Notre Dame (-6.5), ESPN's SP+ computer model also views the Irish as having an edge. As shared to social media by the model's inventor, Bill Connelly, the SP+ predicted that Notre Dame will win by a score of 28-25.

WEEK 3 SP+ PICKS

GT 28.2, Clemson 27.7?
Vols 25, Dawgs 24??
Irish 28, Aggies 25
LSU 28, Florida 25
Bama 33, Wisconsin 16
Pitt 30, WVU 26
Miami 38, USF 24
SC 30, Vandy 21

Not as many disagreements this week. Clemson aside, anyway. Full list: https://t.co/7pOK9K2Aj8 pic.twitter.com/ZlruRlTHTs
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 7, 2025

The model also gives the Fighting Irish a 57% chance of winning.

For those unfamiliar, the SP+ model, as explained by Connelly himself, is "a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency..."

The biggest difference between this year's matchup and last year's is the fact that each team has a different quarterback. For Notre Dame, they will be trotting out redshirt freshman CJ Carr, who replaced Riley Leonard after he departed for the NFL.

As for the Aggies, they will be starting Marcel Reed, who at this time last year was serving as the backup for now- Houston Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman.

The game is set to kick at 7:30 ET and will air on NBC.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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