ESPN's 2025 Preseason College Football Power Index Sells Illinois Short

For all the college football pundits who agree that Illinois is in position to deliver one of its best-ever seasons and, at the very least, shapes up as a preseason top-25 program, there is one "expert" with a wildly dissenting take.

ESPN just released it's algorithm-based College Football Power Index for the 2025 preseason, which projects the Illini – almost incomprehensibly – at No. 44 among Division I schools. FPI's projected win-loss outcome (6.8-5.2) and probability of making the College Football Playoff (3.8 percent) are somehow more bleak.

For context, FPI is explained as follows: "Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date and the remaining schedule." But that explanation only makes the results more head-scratching. Results to date? It's July, for heaven's sake. Remaining schedule? Illinois has one of the most favorable slates among Power 4 programs. What gives?

In a nearly decade-old explainer of FPI found online, ESPN Sports Analytics notes, "The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance."

OK, now we're getting somewhere. Although the Illini won 10 games last season, they were just 18-19 in the three years leading up to 2024. That throws a wrench into the algorithm. Moreover, there's a recruiting piece of the computational model – which ESPN claims is "a very minor component" – that doesn't help the case for Illinois, which had middling recent results on that front before this offseason.

Yet seemingly everything else points to a superb season ahead for the Illini. Coaching tenure? Bret Bielema is in Year 5 (and, for what it's worth, recently signed a contract extension containing strict non-compete stipulations). Returning starters? Illinois leads the Big Ten – and likely ranks among the top 10 among Power 4 programs – with 16. ESPN's FPI explainer even adds that its algorithm gives "special consideration given to starting quarterbacks" among a team's returners, and Luke Altmyer's return would certainly seem to move the needle for the Illini.