ESPN’s CFP National Championship Game Projection Revealed

Connelly used two rules to determine the seven at-large bids that will ultimately be determined by the playoff committee's rankings, including six teams from the way-too-early rankings and, secondly, the team that could be transformed the most by the transfer portal (North Carolina). 

Projected first-round matchups: 

• No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Alabama
• No. 11 North Carolina at No. 6 Texas
• No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Notre Dame
• No. 9 Ohio State at No. 8 Michigan

Projected quarterfinal matchups:

• No. 1 Georgia over No. 8 Michigan (Sugar Bowl)
• No. 5 Alabama over No. 4 Louisville (Orange Bowl)
• No. 3 Utah over No. 6 Texas (Cotton Bowl)
• No. 2 Penn State over No. 7 Notre Dame (Rose Bowl)

Projected semifinal matchups:

• No. 1 Georgia over No. 5 Alabama (Peach Bowl)
• No. 2 Penn State over No. 3 Utah (Fiesta Bowl)

This scenario pits No. 1 Georgia against No. 2 Penn State for a national championship battle between historic programs out of the most powerful conferences. 

Head coach Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs witnessed an early exit from the playoff last season after securing a No. 2 seed for winning the SEC championship. After losing starting quarterback Carson Beck, Georgia could not find enough offense against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, losing 23-10 to the national champion runner-up. 

Questions at quarterback could be answered by rising redshirt junior Gunner Stockton, who replaced Beck in the conference title game against Texas. He logged his first career start against Notre Dame and showed promise. 

And while there are other areas of need with NFL draft departures and transfer portal losses, Smart and his staff have recruited extremely well, signing the No. 1 high school class in 2024, per 247Sports, and the No. 2 class this cycle. 

On the other side, there is plenty to like about head coach James Franklin's Nittany Lions after a record-breaking season for the program. Penn State won a program-best 13 games and fell one game short of a title shot in a 27-24 loss to Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl semifinal. 

The Nittany Lions are set to return star quarterback Drew Allar and both leading rushers in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Additionally, former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has been hired after leading the nation's No. 1 defense in the national championship season. 

According to Connelly's projection, Penn State tops Georgia and secures its first national championship since 1986. 

"2 Penn State over 1 Georgia," Connelly wrote. "Hey, if Will Howard (Ohio State) can win a national title, so can Drew Allar. Especially with new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles in Penn State's corner."