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ESPN's Computer Model Predicting Top-15 Upset This Saturday

Originally posted on The Spun | By Chris Rosvoglou | Last updated Sep 6, 2025 9:11 AM ET

Could we see a top-15 college football team suffer an upset loss for the second weekend in a row? ESPN's computer model certainly thinks so.

Last Saturday, the football world witnessed Florida State dismantle Alabama at home behind a lethal rushing attack. Thomas Castellanos led the charge for the Seminoles with 152 passing yards, 78 rushing yards and a touchdown. It was the type of loss that has fans wondering if the Crimson Tide need a new coach.

So which top 15 team is officially on upset alert for Week 2? Apparently, ESPN isn't very high on the Illinois Fighting Illini.

ESPN Analytics is giving Duke a 50.6% chance to defeat No. 11 Illinois this Saturday. The Blue Devils will have the crowd on their side for this game since it'll be played at Wallace Wade Stadium.

Even though ESPN Analytics likes Duke over Illinois, oddsmakers have the home team as a slight underdog.

Aug 28, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a touchdown pass against the Elon Phoenix during the second half at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images

Darian Mensah is the X-factor.

If Duke is going to upset Illinois at home this Saturday afternoon, Mensah will have to play at a high level. He proved in Week 1 that he's certainly capable of doing that.

Mensah completed 27-of-34 passes for 389 yards with three touchdowns during Duke's 45-17 win over Elon. The transfer from Tulane is coming off a freshman season where he completed 65.9% of his pass attempts for 2,723 yards with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions.

We can't wait to see how Mensah performs against an Illinois defense that gave up just three points in Week 1.

Kickoff for the Illinois-Duke game is at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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