ESPN's Football Power Index Picks a Heavy Favorite for Illinois at Indiana

Despite the Illini entering their Week 2 matchup against the Blue Devils (unranked) as the No. 12 team in the country, ESPN’s FPI actually gave Duke (50.6 percent of winning) a slight edge. Sure, the game was in Durham, but let’s be real: Wade Wallace Stadium is a far cry from The Big House.

Nevertheless, ESPN clearly expected Duke’s home-field advantage to factor in enough to make up for anything the Blue Devils might have lacked on the field. Yet the numbers were wildly off, as Bret Bielema’s squad rolled past Duke, 45-19.

Metrics low on Illinois’ chances at Indiana

Two weeks later, the Illini are once again on the wrong side of ESPN's numbers – and this time, even more so. FPI gives Illinois just a 37.2 percent chance of taking down Indiana, meaning the Hoosiers are fairly heavy favorites at 62.8 percent.

A fair evaluation?

On the one hand, Indiana – which announced a sellout of this game back in late July – certainly has a bigger and more active football fan base than, say, Duke's, which could make the Hoosiers' home-field advantage a more influential factor in Week 4.

More importantly, the Hoosiers have an uber-talented quarterback in Fernando Mendoza – similar to Duke’s Darian Mensah. Mendoza also has the high-major experience (he was a two-year starter at Cal before transferring in the offseason) to complement his next-level abilities and several dangerous receivers.

Cignetti is one of the top minds in college football. Last year, his Indiana defense allowed just 15.6 points per game (second fewest in the Big Ten), and the Hoosiers have seemingly picked up where they left off, giving up 7.7 points per game in 2025 – albeit against that aforementioned lower-level competition.

Stingy on defense and explosive on offense, Indiana has all the tools to stave off Illinois at home – but the Illini also have the pieces to pull off the upset (or at least what FPI characterizes it to be).

Last year, in Indiana’s double-digit loss to Ohio State, the Hoosiers gave up five sacks. Notably, Mendoza has been sacked only once so far this season. But the Illini pass rush is one of the most potent in the nation, and may pose a handful of problems for the Hoosiers and Mendoza, creating pressure he hasn’t felt since he was a Golden Bear.

At the end of the day, Indiana may still have a slight upper hand heading into the contest, but a projection that expects the Hoosiers to, theoretically, win roughly two out of three games against Illinois (62.8 percent chance of victory), even under the circumstances, is a stretch.