Arch Manning's likely NFL Draft outcome has been revealed

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning’s disappointing start to the college football season does not appear to have dimmed his potential NFL prospects. However, it does sound like they may be on hold for a period of time.

ESPN’s Pete Thamel surveyed a group of 25 NFL scouts and executives, and only one named Manning as the top quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft class. The biggest reason for that is most expect Manning to remain with the Longhorns and focus instead on coming out for the 2027 draft.

“He’s very talented,” one scout told Thamel. “Just from top-to-bottom, arm talent. Just understanding in the pocket and seeing the field and feeling the field. You see his arm strength. He just needs to get everything under control and for the game to slow down.”

Manning’s poor start to the 2025 season with the Texas Longhorns has only further convinced evaluators that the sophomore quarterback will likely need another season in college. This may have been the most likely outcome even before the slow start.

South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers was the consensus choice as the top quarterback as things stand, ahead of LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. Miami’s Carson Beck and Oklahoma’s John Mateer are also in the conversation.

Manning has completed just 55.3 percent of his passes this season, with six touchdowns and three interceptions through three games. The Texas offense has been poor enough on his watch that Longhorns fans have actually booed him recently. That is a far cry from what was expected of Manning, who was viewed as a Heisman Trophy contender before the season began.