ESPN's Football Power Index Picks the Favorite for Illinois vs. Washington

The Illini and Huskies have identical records – both overall and in conference play – and even share a loss to the same opponent: No. 1 Ohio State. Interestingly, both also lost by exactly 18 points at home against the Buckeyes.

ESPN's Football Power Index predicts Illinois-Washington

Given the similarity of their resumes and the fact that UW's home-field advantage would seem to be more or less canceled out by Illinois' greater strength of schedule to date, this looks like a pick-'em matchup to the naked eye. So what does ESPN’s Football Power Index predict?

After crunching the numbers, the analytical tool is riding with Washington, which it gives a 61.6 percent chance of staving off the visitors. That leaves Illinois, naturally, with a 38.4 percent chance of pulling off the road upset, according to FPI.

How accurate has FPI been in predicting Illinois’ games?

The metric has almost been spot-on predicting the outcome of the Illini’s games thus far. ESPN's FPI is 6-1 in that regard, having given Illinois a greater-than-50-percent chance in all of its wins, while projecting Bret Bielema’s club to fall in each of its losses … except one.

FPI gave the Illini just a 27.1 percent chance of taking down USC in Week 5 – a game Illinois ultimately won 34-32.

Has FPI correctly projected Washington’s games?

Meanwhile, for Jedd Fisch's crew, the analytical tool has been on the money, correctly predicting every game on the Huskies' schedule – even the road matchup at Maryland. Washington entered that game slightly favored by FPI (52.4 percent), and ended up triumphing behind a 21-point fourth quarter.

Where does ESPN’s FPI rank Illinois and Washington?

Illinois lands at No. 27 in the FPI rankings, with a 13.8-percent chance of reaching the College Football Playoff, while Washington is No. 22 – yet given just a 5.8-percent chance of earning a CFP berth.

Is the prediction fair?

On paper, these teams are quite evenly matched. Illinois’ offense has been a bit more impressive than Washington’s offense through seven games, but the Huskies have looked better on defense than the Illini have.

If the game were to take place on a neutral field, it would be a coin flip – a game that could go either way. But Husky Stadium is one of college football's toughest places to play for a visiting team, which, as it turns out, tilts things in favor of Washington this week.