ESPN's FPI Lowballs Iowa Ahead of Tough 2025 Slate

ESPN released its Football Power Index rankings Tuesday morning, and the Iowa Hawkeyes didn’t fare too well. The data placed Iowa as the No. 39 overall program, 10th in the Big Ten with a win total projection of just six games.

Of course, Iowa’s poor performance in this regard has plenty to do with the program’s recent struggles offensively, but in 2025, the Hawkeyes will also be replacing a bulk of their defense. Nonetheless, ESPN’s Bill Connelly suggested that the FPI data is undervaluing what the Hawkeyes bring to the table this upcoming season.

“The Hawkeyes have more to replace on defense than usual, but a) I can't even pretend like they'll have anything other than a top-10 or top-15 defense until proven otherwise, and b) the offense improved significantly last year (albeit from horrific to merely mediocre) and might have made a lovely QB upgrade by bringing in South Dakota State's Mark Gronowski,” Connelly wrote. “Losing running back Kaleb Johnson hurts, but this very much feels like a top-25-level team to me, one I trust quite a bit more than quite a few of the teams directly ahead of the Hawkeyes in FPI.

It’s an optimistic outlook, sure, but Connelly is right to expect consistency from a Phil Parker defense. And while offensively the rushing attack will need to reformulate without Johnson leading the way, Gronowski figures to open up the passing game enough to bring a sense of balance back to the Iowa offense.

Still, even for a pessimist, Iowa winning just six games, which FPI data only gives the team a 65% chance of accomplishing, seems shortsighted. Last year, the Hawkeyes finished 8-5 against a strength of schedule that finished No. 38 in the country. This year, their strength of schedule ranks as the 32nd-toughest in the nation.

While tough road games include Iowa State, Wisconsin, USC and Nebraska, tougher matchups will be played at home against Penn State and Oregon. Iowa may not be a 10-win team unless Gronowski is really special, but another eight or nine-win season doesn’t seem completely out of the question.

The Hawkeyes aren't exactly pegged as a playoff contender, though they do hold a non-zero chance of doing so with FPI's data giving the team a whopping 0.1% chance of doing so. But with that in mind, a top 25 finish, with clear and obvious offensive growth, and a solid bowl bid would be viewed as a success for an Iowa program finding its footing in the new Big Ten.