ESPN's FPI Predicts Every Game on Virginia Football's 2025 Schedule

The Hoos handled the Chanticleers 43-24 a year ago. With a new offensive and defensive coordinator for the team from Conway could also experience growing pains out of the gate, allowing the Hoos to snag a comfortable home victory to open the season.

Game 2 at NC State: ESPN's FPI gives NC State a 64.2% chance to win (1-1, 0-0 ACC)

Virginia's first big test of the year comes on the road against NC State, led by sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey. If Virginia wins this game, it will give a massive confidence boost moving forward, in addition to putting the Cavaliers on the map as a potential ACC contender. The vibe of this game gives Virginia's 24-19 road victory over Pittsburgh last year.

Game 3 vs William & Mary: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia a 94.5% chance to win (2-1, 0-0 ACC)

Virginia is on a six game winning streak against the Tribe and have no excuses to blow a game against a significantly weaker opponent in William & Mary. The Cavaliers should win this game with no issues.

Game 4 vs Stanford: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia a 61.6% chance to win (3-1, 1-0 ACC)

After a light week against William & Mary, the Hoos remain home to host new ACC opponent Stanford. The Cardinals are in a program reset after their head coach was fired in March, leading to a multitude of players entering the portal. Considering this matchup is at home, Virginia should take care of business against what should be a struggling Stanford squad in 2025.

Game 5 vs Florida State: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia a 55.2% chance to win (4-1, 2-0 ACC)

To close out the home stand, the Cavaliers host Florida State in what will be an exciting Friday night matchup in Charlottesville. I agree with ESPN giving Virginia the edge, considering the Cavaliers dispatched Thomas Castellanos a year ago when he played for Bill O'Brien's Boston College. According to ESPN's prediction Virginia would start 4-1 for the second season in a row.

Game 6 at Louisville: ESPN's FPI gives Louisville a 75.8% chance to win (4-2, 2-1 ACC)

The Cavaliers nearly defeated the Cardinals at home last year. Behind a reinforced transfer portal-laden roster led by USC transfer quarterback Mill er Moss, Louisville will be making a run at the ACC Championship this fall. The Cardinals will be a formidable opponent to defeat, especially on the road.

Game 7 vs Washington State: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia a 81.6% chance to win (5-2, 2-1 ACC)

For the last non-conference game of the season, the Hoos host Washington State, who lost their head coach to Wake Forest and their star quarterback John Mateer to Oklahoma. The Cougars, now led by Jimmy Rogers, who formally led South Dakota State to an FCS National Championship in 2023, will be in a rebuild this fall.

Game 8 at North Carolina: ESPN's FPI gives North Carolina a 61.8% chance to win (5-3, 2-2 ACC)

The South's Oldest Rivalry adds Bill Belichick as the newest addition to the long-storied rivalry. Belichick was aggressive in the transfer portal this offseason and may have the edge over the Cavaliers. However, this rivalry usually produces a close game and is one the Hoos could certainly steal. Last time out in Chapel Hill, Virginia upset the then No. 10 Tar Heels 31-27 to claim the school's first-ever top-10 road victory.

Game 9 at California: ESPN's FPI gives Cal a 63.7% chance to win (5-4, 2-3 ACC)

This game comes as a surprise in that I would expect it to be a little closer to 50-50, although I could see ESPN factoring in the road trip for the Hoos as a contributing factor. This game is a key game for the Cavaliers to steal if they want to have the breakout year they aspire to have in 2025.

Game 10 vs Wake Forest: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia a 70.5% chance to win (6-4, 3-3 ACC)

Last year, this game was an instant classic with the Hoos rattling off 14 straight points to pull a 31-30 win over the Demon Deacons. With a new head coach in Jake Dickert, formally of Washington State, Wake Forest will be finding their footing in year one, allowing for the Cavaliers to snag what should be a confident home win.

Game 11 at Duke: ESPN's FPI gives Duke a 70.6% chance to win (6-5, 3-4 ACC)

A Duke squad led by Tulane transfer quarterback Darian Mensah will be a difficult test for the Hoos, although Durham is not the worst place to go on the road. This is a very winnable game for the Cavaliers.

Game 12 vs Virginia Tech: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia Tech a 66.4% chance to win (6-6, 3-5 ACC)

The Commonwealth Clash. History hasn't favored Virginia, considering they've won twice in the 21st century. However, if Tony Elliott is going to turn the Virginia program around, it starts with changing the narrative against the Hokies. If Virginia stays healthy and the transfers pan out this could be the biggest win for Virginia this fall.

From this, ESPN FPI gives Virginia a 6-6 record, which would be a disappointing year considering the high expectations that have been placed on Tony Elliott in year four.