ESPN's FPI Reveals Prediction For College Football Program With No. 1 Toughest Schedule

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Hugh Green | Last updated Aug 21, 2025 11:00 PM ET

It has been well documented throughout the college football offseason that the Florida Gators will face one of, if not the toughest, schedules in the nation in 2025. Ranked as the No. 15 team in the preseason AP Top 25, Florida will face 10 Power Four opponents, seven of which are also ranked in the AP Poll before the year begins.

Head coach Billy Napier and the Gators are coming off an 8-5 record in 2024, including a four-game winning streak to end the season. Now, with the No. 1 strength of schedule in the country, according to ESPN, they will try to shock the nation.

On Thursday, ESPN's FPI released its chances of Florida winning each game this season, per Gatorssz on Twitter/X, and the result is staggering.

ESPN's analytics favor Florida in six of its 12 regular-season games for 2025. This includes just one game against a ranked opponent in which the Gators have more than a 50% chance of winning.

According to the FPI, Florida is heavily favored in five of its matchups this season. These opponents are the Long Island Sharks (99%), USF Bulls (90.4%), Mississippi State Bulldogs (83%), Kentucky Wildcats (69.1%) and Florida State Seminoles (88.1%).

On the other hand, ESPN gives Florida less than a 40% chance of winning against three teams. These are the Texas Longho rns (29.7%), Texas A&M Aggies (39.3%) and Georgia Bulldogs (30.8%).

That leaves four games in which Florida is given at least a 40% chance to win but will likely be more of toss-ups. This includes the LSU Tigers (42.5%), Ole Miss Rebels (41.2%), Miami Hurricanes (47%) and Tennessee Volunteers (51.5%).

With these predictions from the FPI, it will be very interesting to see if Napier and Florida can beat the teams they presumably should, come out victorious in any swing games or pull off any major upsets. If the Gators can, they would make a great case for a College Football Playoff bid.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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