Nov 4, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema reacts to a holding call during the second half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

ESPN’s FPI Snubs Illinois: Why the Projection Misses the Mark for 2025

Originally posted on Illinois Fighting Illini on SI
By Jackson Langendorf | Last updated Aug 18, 2025 6:01 PM ET

Let’s start with the good news for Illinois: The Illini have climbed in ESPN’s latest FPI projections.Now, for the real reason we're here: Illinois has “skyrocketed” from No. 44 – its ranking in early July – all the way up to No. 37. (It's worth noting that the leap was one of the largest for any program in the country in that time period, but the result is still a number that's inarguably low.)

What's more, the Illini's record projection isn’t any more promising (7.1-5.0). Obviously, these rankings and predictions aren’t just the whim of one individual; in fact, they're derived from a data-based analytical system that (supposedly) takes all important factors into account. Despite the media and coaches having sky-high expectations for the Illini in 2025, clearly the numbersdon't back up the narrative.

We’ll try our best to decipher exactly why, and we’ll take a look at which games ESPN's numbers-cruncher likely views as losses for Illinois: (whether or not we're in agreement):

Games ESPN doesn't like for Illinois

Week 2: at Duke

Week 4: at No. 20 Indiana

Week 5: vs. USC

Week 7: vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Week 9: at Washington

Although ESPN hasn’t released the game-to-game FPI predictions, we’re taking our best educated guess and assuming these are the matchups ESPN’s system expects the Illini to drop. Is it possible, even likely, that Illinois loses some of those games? One hundred percent. Is the general expectation that Illinois will fall in all five? That would be a hard no.

To play devil’s advocate, the Illini didn’t do themselves many favors with so many close, last-minute decisions last season, and they certainly didn’t separate themselves from a statistical standpoint – which is what the analytics are naturally based on.

Still, that doesn’t mean Illinois should be expected to lose all of the games listed above. If every outing were played today, Illinois would likely be the favorite against Duke, USC, Washington and arguably Indiana.

Mark it, schedule it, book it. The 2025 Illini Football schedule is here. #Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/rbVbbohymu
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) December 11, 2024

Still, the numbers are hardly a reason for concern – for now. At the end of the day, a computer system is least accurate when zero snaps have been played. (The data being used is non-predictive and already somewhat outdated.) If 10 weeks from now the Illini sit in the same spot in the eyes of the analytics, despite holding a juicy record, then maybe it’s a sign Bret Bielema’s club has been quite fortunate and a stumble is on the horizon. But for the time being, it’s nothing more than statistical noise.

This article first appeared on Illinois Fighting Illini on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: