ESPN's SP+ Model Predicts Winner of Notre Dame-Ohio State National Championship

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Matt De Lima | Last updated Jan 17, 2025 9:04 PM ET

In a lengthy preview article from ESPN's Bill Connelly, seemingly every angle between the College Football Playoff National Championship game was covered. The matchup on Monday will feature the No. 8 seed Ohio State Buckeyes and No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The two teams are meeting for just the ninth time in the history of the storied programs.

The SP+ model is described as "in a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency."

Per Connelly's SP+ predictive model, the final score projection is Ohio State 27.6 to Notre Dame 21.7.

Despite the two programs having a combined history of 273 years--Ohio State (1890, 135 years) & Notre Dame (1887, 138 years), the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish have played just eight times, six since 1995.

The Scarlet and Gray have won all six games against Notre Dame since 1995. The Fighting Irish's two wins against the Buckeyes came in 1935 and 1936.

In closing his piece, Connelly wrote, "The Buckeyes have been 2024's best overall team. They have the best defense, and they have an offense that appears built to defeat what Notre Dame does best. The 2024 season has been an absolute delight, and here's to hoping that it ends with one more great game. However, it seems most likely to end with Ryan Day and the Scarlet and Gray lifting the national title trophy."

In comparing various matchups between coaches and position groups, Connelly gave the Buckeyes the advantage in five categories, Notre Dame in two and a push in three.

ESPN BET has Ohio State listed as an 8.5-point favorite.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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