Evidence suggests decision made in Arkansas coaching search

As anyone with basic analytical skills can ascertain, Arkansas appears to have its man for the head football job — at least for now.

This is based on two huge clues, including the decision by University of North Texas head coach Eric Morris announcing he is going to Oklahoma State, which is the move most expected him to make, and the out of left field re-commitment from offensive lineman Ben Mubenga of Buford, Georgia.

Morris' call

The only shocking thing about Morris going to Oklahoma State is when he decided to announce it. His offense is tailor-made to run rough-shod over the Big 12 and the path to the playoffs is dramatically easier despite Stillwater being a much more difficult destination for recruiting.

He would have had to absolutely nail his defensive coordinator hire at Arkansas for things to work out to its fullest against that schedule. After all, the Hogs have already proven offense alone is a terrible recipe for trying to win in the modern SEC.

He also would have needed to learn to recruit in unfamiliar territory on behalf of the Razorbacks in addition to the Texas market, which can be an overwhelming ask.

Still, the only logical reason for Morris to make the call when he did is his agent finally ran out of leverage over Oklahoma State by way of Arkansas. Once the Hogs made a decision, the Cowboys had all the reason in the world to shut down negotiations and force a premature announcement.

After all, the only fan base in the region that has suffered a longer coaching search than Arkansas is Oklahoma State. Sam Pittman lasted roughly a full week longer than the long-tenured Mike Gundy.

It's a move by Morris that makes no sense otherwise. His team needs full focus to take out Temple Saturday, propelling North Texas into the AAC championship game presumably against No. 24 Tulane with an inside run at the last automatic spot in the College Football Playoffs.

There's no value in pulling the trigger early in that scenario.

Clue that was suddenly there

While offers on behalf of the Razorbacks football team have gone out as late as a week ago, no one has dared commit. If anything, it's been a steady train of decommits by players not wanting to get left out in the cold by a new coaching staff not honoring offers.

That's when Mubenga jumped in the Hogs' boat seemingly out of nowhere. The decision lined up almost perfectly with Morris making his decision to take his talents to Stillwater.

Arkansas offensive line coach Eric Mateos appears to have a strong relationship with Mubenga. However, the idea a player would decide to pledge to a team with no coach in place when he has offers from a long list of heavy hitters is asinine.

It's customary for at least one coach from the previous staff to be retained, and in this case, not only do all signs point to that being Mateos, but he's about the only option who makes sense. Nearly half of the players who stuck around in recruiting are offensive linemen, which speaks worlds of Mateos considering the draw Pittman was to young men of that position.

Also, Mateos was already a strong coach when he was hired, but he was made even better after spending a couple of years learning directly from Pittman and his heavy involvement in trying to build a much-needed wall across the offensive line. Within that time, he constructed the most solid position group on the team by a mile, creating one of the best lines in all of college football this season despite there being all kinds of reasons to slack off.

The run of events indicate there is a good chance someone has taken the job and decided to retain Mateos with the agreement that he will handle things on campus and in recruiting until the new coach can begin taking on the weight of the duties.

Does that mean this is exactly what's happening? Absolutely not.

It could just be a case of a young man misunderstanding a conversation with a coach and getting overexcited. It could also be a coincidence in timing with Morris.

However, that's rarely how college football works. That being said, if the new hired watched the College Football Playoff selection show and saw his future boss making light of the Ole Miss selection with a lame 6-7 reference rather than keeping things professional in a moment that called for exactly that, then all the signs in the world couldn't overcome the power of potential doubt about the decision.

It's possible for two things to be true. Arkansas has its man as of last night with Mateos handling things on his behalf, and the Hogs having absolutely nothing but a list once again this morning.

That's the nature of the beast. Coaching searches can be finicky.

So, can a name come out already?

There appear to be a couple of names that have the highest odds of fitting the bill based on the events of the past week. However, these things are so volatile and the actual announcement is so close that there is no value in jumping the gun.

Stepping out to throw down a name with extreme confidence at this point without concrete evidence a press conference is being called would be a fool's errand. Remember all those who staked their reputations on Chris Beard during the basketball search or those who went all in on Lane Kiffin during the previous football searches?

There was good reason to go there at those times, but coaching searches run burning hot and then immediately ice cold. Until the university has set a date and time, there won't be a coach presented on these pages as the definitive answer.

It's irresponsible to do so otherwise.