Expert Model Reveals Stunning Pick for Ole Miss Football vs. Miami Hurricanes in CFP

Originally posted on Ole Miss Rebels on SI | By Zack Nagy | Last updated Jan 4, 2026 10:30 AM ET

No. 6 Ole Miss will hit the road to Glendale (Ariz.) next week for a Fiesta Bowl showdown against the Miami Hurricanes with a berth to the National Championship on the line.

In what will serve as a critical College Football Playoff semifinals matchup, Pete Golding and Co. will look to keep the program's magical season alive against Carson Beck and the Hurricanes.

“We’re not really focused on like, destiny or anything like that,” Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss stated on Thursday. “We just want to play ball and have fun.

"A lot of people did doubt us before the season, and they still doubted us when our coach left. So, we just want to play ball and have fun. I think that’s showing right now.”

The Game Information: Fiesta Bowl Matchup

Matchup: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Miami Hurricanes
Kickoff Time: 6:30 p.m. CT
Venue: State Farm Stadium
TV Channel: ESPN
Radio: Ole Miss Sports Radio Network
Ole Miss Rebels Record: 13-1 (8-1 SEC)
Miami Hurricanes Record: 12-2 (6-2 ACC)

Odds, Spread and Total: Fiesta Bowl Battle

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Ole Miss: +3.5 (-115)
Miami: -3.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Ole Miss: +142
Miami: -172

Total

Over 51.5 (-115)
Under 51.5 (-105)

The Ole Miss Rebels currently come in as 3.5-point underdogs heading into the Fiesta Bowl clash against Mario Cristobal and Co. at State Farm Stadium.

The over/under for the matchup sits at 51.5 with the Ole Miss offense looking to wreak havoc against the Hurricanes following a strong College Football Playoff quarterfinals clash on New Year's Day.

The ESPN SP+ Prediction:

According to Bill Connelly's ESPN SP+ expert model, the Ole Miss Rebels hold a slight advantage against the Miami Hurricanes in the Fiesta Bowl with a final score prediction of 28-25 being logged - giving Ole Miss roughly a 2.9-point advantage in the model.

SP+ SEMIFINAL PROJECTIONS:

Ole Miss by 2.9 (28.1 to 25.2)
Indiana by 3.0 (26.7 to 23.7)

SP+ TITLE ODDS:

Indiana 40.8% (up 15.2% from last week)
Oregon 26.7% (up 18.1%)
Ole Miss 19.6% (up 12.8%)
Miami 12.9% (up 10.6%)
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) January 2, 2026

The SP+ model also gives the Rebels a 19.6 percent to capture a National Championship, which is roughly a 12.8 percent increase from last week, according to the model.

Ole Miss and Miami will kickoff at 6:30 p.m. CT on Jan. 8 with both programs eyeing a berth to the College Football Playoff Final.

This article first appeared on Ole Miss Rebels on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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