Florida State vs. Louisville: ACC Championship Game Prediction, Pick

More than just the ACC title is on the line on Championship Saturday, and it will take everything Florida State has to get the most out of what this game can give it. Still undefeated despite some close calls lately, the Seminoles check in at No. 4 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Technically still inside the final four semifinal, everything could change if things don't go according to plan against challenger Louisville on Saturday night in Charlotte.

Florida State vs. Louisville prediction, preview

When: Sat., Dec. 2
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

ACC Championship Game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Florida State -1.5
Total: 46.5 points
Moneyline: FSU -Even | UL -120
FPI pick: Florida State 74.4% to win

What to watch for

1. Change of course. Since the loss of quarterback Jordan Travis to injury, and now with questions around Tate Rodemaker after his concussion, much of the Seminoles' energy will be placed on owning the ground game. Luckily, Trey Benson is up to that task; Florida State's top back rushed for three touchdowns against Florida and is posting over 6 yards per carry this season. But the Cardinals are 15th nationally against the run and 3rd in red zone defense overall. If the Noles turn one-dimensional and the passing game breaks down, Louisville can take advantage quickly.

2. Advantage at QB. That clearly belongs to Louisville, thanks to the play of transfer Jack Plummer, one of the top signal callers to change schools this season. The senior is hitting over 66% of his throws with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. But the Cardinals are susceptible to turnovers and Florida State can generate consistent pressure defensively at the line to thwart Plummer's timing and squeeze the pocket. FSU is No. 8 nationally in sacks recorded this season.

3. Jordan. Not Travis; Jawhar. Louisville's lead tailback is over 1,000 yards rushing this season and has 13 touchdowns on the ground while posting almost 6.5 yards per carry. Nine of those scores came when he had over 100 yards rushing in a game, but he can hit the line from close range and score on slow nights, too. The Seminoles are about average against the run in total numbers, but allow under 4 ypc on average and allowed just 2 opponents to go over 155 this year, Duke and Virginia Tech.

Florida State vs. Louisville prediction

A lot of the matchups here tilt slightly in Louisville's favor, especially without Jordan Travis on the field, and definitely if Rodemaker is limited or can't play. The Cardinals play a balanced offense and have the people at the line who can frustrate the Seminoles' ability to run the ball consistently. 

Florida State is just finding ways to win. By leaning hard on its excellent pass defense, bringing its best game at the line of scrimmage and rushing the quarterback, and putting an emphasis on running the ball, the Seminoles can help create opportunities in the air with their superb skill threats to help out their inexperienced quarterback. But this is going to be very close.

College Football HQ picks...

• Florida State wins 23-20
• Covers the spread
  
• And hits the under