Fool’s Gold: 3 Ranked Teams Doomed to Drop

Destined to Fade

Three teams ranked high in the AP Top 25 stand out as the most likely to finish the year unranked. Each shows at least one of the warning signs discussed earlier, setting up a disappointing 2025 for their fan bases.

Quarterback Instability: Miami

QB Cam Ward was electric in his lone season at Miami, throwing for 4,313 yards, 39 TDs and just seven INTs. He finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting and became the No. 1 overall pick by the Tennessee Titans in the 2024 NFL Draft. To replace him, the No. 10 Hurricanes lured former Georgia starting QB Carson Beck with a massive NIL offer. The issue? Beck regressed in 2024, doubling his interceptions from the prior year with 12, including eight in a three-game stretch against Mississippi State, Texas and Florida. Expect turnovers to haunt him again and Miami to finish unranked at 8–5.

Difficult Schedule: Florida

The Gators closed 2024 with four straight wins to finish 8–5, likely saving coach Billy Napier’s job and unveiling a potential star in QB DJ Lagway. The challenge in 2025 is the schedule: seven ranked opponents, including four in the top 10 with No. 1 Texas, No. 4 Georgia, No. 9 LSU and No. 10 Miami. Even the season finale against rival Florida State will be a fight. No. 11 Florida should be improved, but the gauntlet leaves them unranked at 7–6 when the dust settles.

Overhyped: Arizona State

Coach Kenny Dillingham did an impressive job reviving a Sun Devils program that was coming off back-to-back 3–9 seasons. In 2024, Arizona State went 11–3 and pushed Texas to the brink in a double-overtime College Football Playoff quarterfinal. But why assume that level of success is sustainable? Since 1997, Arizona State has posted 10 or more wins only four times. Last season’s 6–1 record in one-score games also suggests some luck was involved. QB Sam Leavitt was a strong addition, but he has just one proven year, and the loss of RB Cam Skattebo is significant. Expect the No. 15 Sun Devils to regress to the mean and finish unranked at 8–5.

Closing Thoughts

When a ranked team is on upset alert, social media explodes and fans rush to catch the finish. Outside of the elite programs with endless NIL resources like Ohio State and Texas, parity has taken over college football. With so many games decided by a handful of plays, the line between finishing 10–3 and ranked or 8–5 and unranked is razor thin. In 2025, the Hurricanes, Gators and Sun Devils will be left playing the what-if game after disappointing seasons.