Game Preview: No. 18 Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 3 Miami Hurricanes

Seminole Headlines

Fixing the Defense

Florida State's defense was awful last week against Virginia, letting the Cavaliers put up 46 points and 440 total yards. They did intercept Chandler Morris three times, but letting UVA run for 211 yards at 4.4 yards per carry was disappointing. There was no push up front for most of the game.

The three leading tackles in that game were Earl Little Jr., Ja'Bril Rawls, and Shyheim Brown. That's not ideal. The linebacker unit, which had a good start to the season, has to play better than it did against Virginia.

The defensive line also has to find a way to get more pressure, but we'll talk about that more in a minute.

A Revamped Miami Defense

Miami had the first overall draft pick at quarterback last year with Cam Ward, but they missed out on the playoffs because their defense was absolutely atrocious, allowing nearly 31 PPG and 363 yards per game in ACC play.

It's early in the season, but the defense appears to be much improved, as they hired former Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman. Taking out the Bethune-Cookman game, Miami is allowing just 10.8 PPG and 262.3 yards per game against Notre Dame, USF, and Florida.

Florida's offense may be anemic, but Miami just looks more improved on defense. The defensive line has accrued 8 sacks, 17 tackles for loss, and a whopping 70 pressures. This will be a tough test for FSU's offensive line.

Those numbers are led by Rueben Bain and sixth-year senior Akheem Mesidor, who have a combined 38 pressures and 4.5 sacks. FSU's offensive line has to know where they are at all times.

Avoiding Mental Mistakes

Florida State would've won against Virginia if they played smart, sound football. There was Micahi Danzy's drop that was nearly a fumble, Castellanos overthrowing a crossing route, Earl Little Jr. not wrapping up on a few tackles (especially the one that J'Mari Taylor broke loose for a touchdown), Little's personal foul, and plenty of others, not even counting the turnovers.

FSU isn't talented enough to win by being better than the other team. They have good players, but they can't afford mistakes, especially when Miami is on deck. If they expect to win this game, there can't be any turnovers, there have to be few FSU penalties, and tackles have to be made the first time.

Three Burning Questions

How Can FSU Pressure Carson Beck?

Miami quarterback Carson Beck has only been pressured 17 times this season, sacked three times, and hit as he's throwing once. Their offensive line has been able to keep him clean, but he's also getting rid of the ball quickly, as his average time to throw is just 2.40 seconds. Of all quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season, Beck's 2.4 seconds to throw is the 5th fastest in the FBS.

Beck is also an insane 39/42 on throws from 0-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, including a blistering 29/30 between the numbers. FSU has to be prepared for that.

If FSU comes out with the same game plan that they did against Virginia, they're going to stand no chance. The quick, easy stuff underneath was open all game, and even when Virginia did drop back into a deep pass, the pressure was non-existent. That can't happen in this game.

Will Pressuring Beck Even Matter?

Miami's offensive line and running backs are probably licking their chops watching FSU's film against Virginia, because they probably feel that they can run all over the Seminoles. In their three games against quality opponents, they're averaging 172.3 rushing yards per game at 4.2 yards per pop.

They have two running backs to take note of: Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown. Fletcher is the better of the two, rushing for 388 yards on nearly six yards per pop with 5 touchdowns. Brown has been solid but unspectacular with 206 yards on 4.2 yards per carry and 4 touchdowns. Pair them with an elite tackle like Francis Mauigoa, and they could be looking to establish the run early and often.

How Many Points Does Florida State Need to Score to Have a Chance?

Florida and Notre Dame showed that Miami's offense isn't elite. It's very good, but it's not top-of-the-line like it was last year. For the Seminoles to have a fighting chance, though, they're probably going to need to score more than 30 points.

No one has scored more than 24 on the 'Canes yet, and that needed two late touchdowns from Notre Dame to accomplish, but FSU's offense looks much more dangerous than any of those offenses. None of those teams has been able to crack 100 yards on the ground against the 'Canes, while FSU has been above 230 rushing yards in every game so far. Something has to give.

Tommy Castellanos will also need to play a smoother game than he played against Virginia. His interception in the red zone in the first quarter was more of an amazing play by UVA, but he also missed a couple of throws that FSU needs him to make. I expect him to be at his best in this game.

Game Forecast

Miami is favored by 4.5 points with an over/under of 53.5 points, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Is it weird that I feel slightly more confident after Florida State lost to Virginia? I probably would've had Miami winning by 7 to 10 had the Seminoles not lost on the road, but that loss should force them to refocus on the task ahead.

Gus Malzahn surely has something up his sleeve for the offense; it's going to come down to how well Tony White can get his defense to play after a stinker in Charlottesville a week ago. Can they stop the run and force Carson Beck to throw deep, as he's 8/17 on throws of longer than 20 yards?

This is the Hurricanes' first road game of the season, which is crazy to say this deep into it. And it's going to be a hostile environment with a crowd hungry to hand Mario Cristobal's squad their first loss of the season. And everyone knows Cristobal is bound to screw up at some point. Miami is also fresh off a bye week and is off again next week, so they have extra resources to throw at this game.

I'll still take Miami in a close one, as much as it pains me to say, but this should be an exciting matchup.

Miami 31, Florida State 30

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.