Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Prediction

The 2024-25 college football postseason continues on Thursday, Dec. 27 with Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt meeting in the Birmingham Bowl. This game takes place at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Ala. This is the 39th all-time meeting between the Yellow Jackets and Commodores on the gridiron. Georgia Tech holds a 20-15-3 series edge. 

Georgia Tech started its 2024 season with an upset win over Florida State in Ireland and later pulled off another stunner against a team from the Sunshine State (Miami) en route to a 7-5 record. Coach Brent Key's team also nearly defeated Georgia (44-42 in overtime) and lost to Syracuse by three points. After taking over as the program's interim coach during the '22 campaign and later earning the full-time job, Key is 18-15 overall in Atlanta and has guided the program to back-to-back seven-win seasons. 

Vanderbilt was one of the SEC's biggest surprises this year. After a 2-10 record and an 0-8 mark in conference play last season, the Commodores showed marked improvement in coach Clark Lea's fourth year at the helm. Thanks to a revamped staff that included new play-caller Tim Beck and long-time head coach Jerry Kill, along with the arrival of transfer quarterback Diego Pavia, the Commodores finished 6-6 and pulled off upset wins against Alabama, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, and Auburn.

Vanderbilt is 4-4-1 in nine previous bowl trips. This is the program's first postseason trek since 2018, but the Commodores have lost their last two bowl bids. Georgia Tech is 26-20 in previous postseason appearances. The Yellow Jackets have won three out of their last four bowl games.

Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt

Birmingham Bowl
Location: Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Ala.
Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Georgia Tech -3
Over/Under: 51.5
Announcers: Dave Neal, Aaron Murray, and Ashley ShahAhmadi 

Why Georgia Tech Will Win

The Yellow Jackets lost a couple of key players to transfer - receiver Eric Singleton, tackle Corey Robinson, linebacker Romello Height, and safety Taye Seymore - but Key's team has more than enough pieces to win on Thursday afternoon in Birmingham.

Quarterback Haynes King battled through injuries in the '24 season but has thrived under coordinator Buster Faulkner since leaving Texas A&M for Georgia Tech. The Texas native threw for 1,910 yards and 11 touchdowns and added 578 yards and 11 scores on the ground this year. With a couple of weeks to heal, King could potentially benefit from the layoff more than any player on Georgia Tech's roster. 

Vanderbilt's defense has been vulnerable through the air (No. 125 nationally in success rate), and even without Singleton (56 catches for 754 yards), King has plenty of weapons to deploy downfield. Receivers Malik Rutherford (59 catches), Chase Lane (20), and Bailey Stockton (15), and tight end Avery Boyd (22) should find room to operate against the Commodores.

In addition to King's success on the ground, running back Jamal Haynes (808 yards) averages just over five yards a carry (5.3) and is a tough matchup for a Vanderbilt defense that ranks No. 10 in the SEC against the run.

Vanderbilt's offense is tough to prepare for with Pavia at the controls, but this unit failed to score more than 24 points in each of its last seven games. Even though Georgia Tech is down a couple of key cogs from the regular season, the Commodores' late-season struggles provides optimism coordinator Tyler Santucci can keep this unit in check. The Yellow Jackets thrived at stopping the run (No. 6 in the ACC) and lead the ACC in third-down defense. If Santucci's group can replicate both of those goals on Friday, Georgia Tech should be positioned to bring home bowl hardware.

Why Vanderbilt Will Win

Vanderbilt's offense lost a little steam late in the season, but this unit is still difficult to prepare for with Beck's scheme and Pavia's all-around playmaking ability under center. In his debut with the Commodores in '24, Pavia threw for 2,133 yards and 17 touchdowns and ran for 716 yards and six scores. 

If Vanderbilt wins on Friday, Pavia is likely going to do a lot of the heavy lifting against a solid Georgia Tech defense (24.8 points a game allowed in the regular season). But the New Mexico native isn't a one-man show on offense with running back Sedrick Alexander (554 yards) and receivers Junior Sherrill and Quincy Skinner. Tight end Eli Stowers (45 catches) is Pavia's No. 1 target and his versatility is a tough matchup for the Yellow Jackets.

Lea's decision to take over the defensive play-calling duties after 2023 paid big-time dividends for Vanderbilt's defense. This unit limited teams to 23.1 points a game (down from 36.2) and significantly cut down on the big plays allowed from the previous fall.

The Commodores will bend a little (6.02 yards a play allowed), but this unit allows touchdowns on just 55.9 percent of red zone trips. Also, opponents are often fighting poor field position versus Lea's defense thanks to punter Jesse Mirco (47.98 yards a kick). 

Final Analysis

This could be one of the more entertaining matchups of bowl season. Both Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech played spoiler against ranked opponents this season and have two dynamic quarterbacks in Pavia and King ready to battle for 60 minutes. The Yellow Jackets will miss Rutherford in the passing game, but the guess here is King and the offense finds a way to put together a couple of drives in the second half to win a close (and back-and-forth) Birmingham Bowl against Pavia and the Commodores. 

Prediction: Georgia Tech 31, Vanderbilt 30