The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5, 5-3 ACC) take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6, 3-5 SEC) in the Birmingham Bowl on Friday, Dec. 27. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Birmingham Bowl pits two teams that should be motivated to win a bowl game.
The Commodores were one of the season's surprises, with their biggest moment coming in a 40-35 upset of Alabama at home on Oct. 5.
Conversely, the Yellow Jackets had a massive 28-23 upset over Miami and missed knocking off Georgia in Athens in the final week of the regular season, losing 44-42 in overtime.
Georgia Tech enters as a -3 favorite with the over/under set at 50.
Let’s look at my Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt predictions and college football picks for the Birmingham Bowl on Friday, Dec. 27.
My Vanderbilt vs. Georgia Tech's best bet is on the Commodores to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Quarterback Haynes King has been phenomenal in the Yellow Jackets offense when he has been healthy.
King brings a dual-threat component to the attack. He is an accurate passer down the field and an efficient runner who can use his legs to gain key yards on the ground.
Since taking over in 2022, head coach Brent Key has done a good job with this team, and GT fans have reason to be optimistic about the future.
Key’s offensive line background has helped balance the Jackets' offense, which ranks inside the top 50 in both Pass Success and Rush Success rates.
Finding that balance will be necessary against Vanderbilt, as Clark Lea’s defenses typically try to take away what the opponent does best.
On the other side of the ball, it has been a mixed bag for Georgia Tech.
The Ramblin’ Wreck has been strong against the run, ranking 12th in Line Yards for the year. The secondary, meanwhile, has been vulnerable, surrendering some big plays at key moments throughout the season.
Back-end injuries have not helped, and for the year, the unit ranks outside the top 80 in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Lea’s plan of building the program correctly over time paid dividends in 2024.
That said, the addition of QB Diego Pavia cannot be overstated as a key reason why Vanderbilt started moving the needle in the wins and losses department.
On that note, last week, it was announced that Pavia had won his appeal and would return to Nashville in 2025.
Expectations for next season will be as big as they’ve been for the Commodores, and this bowl game is an opportunity to add to the momentum that’s already brewing.
The Commodores were undermanned on the defensive end at times in SEC play, which has made those metrics look less than pretty.
Vandy sits outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives allowed, which is cause for concern against King’s power rushing abilities near the goal line.
The good news is, just as Pavia and company created problems against Alabama and Missouri with some unique offensive concepts, they should be able to find a rhythm against this Yellow Jacket defense.
Like King, Pavia is dynamic with his legs and a load to bring down. He’s also been accurate, and tight end Eli Stowers has been incredibly reliable all year.
I’d also expect Lea to have a wrinkle or two up his sleeve for this one, and with the nature of a bowl game, he’ll likely be more aggressive than usual on fourth down.
Forcing a turnover or two would go a long way in helping Vanderbilt gain the edge in this matchup.
Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt Matchup Analysis
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge Rush Success 47 91
Line Yards 94 63
Pass Success 29 114
Havoc 18 55
Finishing Drives 43 102
Quality Drives 39 78
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge Rush Success 90 45
Line Yards 100 12
Pass Success 56 83
Havoc 36 63
Finishing Drives 47 70
Quality Drives 24 58
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 123 113 PFF Coverage 95 96 Special Teams SP+ 111 1 Middle 8 36 100 Seconds per Play 26.8 (63) 31.0 (132) Rush Rate 55% (47) 61% (21) Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
I have a feeling this game will prove to be one of the most entertaining in all of bowl season.
Two really impressive young coaches whose teams play hard should lay it all on the line to try to end the year victorious.
Georgia Tech is rightfully favored, but with Pavia back healthy and under center, I believe Vandy can find success offensively and keep this one nip-and-tuck throughout.
As a result, I think there’s value on the underdog Commodores as long as you’ll give me a field goal or more.
Trust in Vandy to make enough plays to give itself a chance to win it late and cover. Anchor Down.
Pick: Vanderbilt +3 or Better
Location: | Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL |
Date: | Friday, Dec. 27 |
Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Georgia Tech takes on Vanderbilt in the Birmingham Bowl on Friday, Dec. 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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