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College football analyst Greg McElroy predicted Penn State to win against Oregon on Saturday's White Out game. Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

Greg McElroy picks Oregon-Penn State winner in Week 5

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By Matt De Lima | Last updated Sep 26, 2025 7:00 AM ET

Few games on the college football calendar carry as much weight as a primetime White Out in Happy Valley with playoff implications on the line.

During Thursday's episode of Always College Football, Greg McElroy turned his attention to the showdown between No. 6 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions are a slight favorite at home, where the White Out setting has fueled a six-game win streak dating back to 2019. It is also a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten championship, a game the Ducks won 45–37, which adds to the magnitude of the moment.

College GameDay will be on site, and the primetime slot on NBC ensures the atmosphere will be one of the most memorable of the season.

The stage offers head coach James Franklin and quarterback Drew Allar an opportunity to prove themselves in a setting where Penn State has often thrived but also faltered against top-tier opponents. Oregon enters unbeaten with a balanced offense and a defense that has yet to face a rushing attack like Penn State’s.

For McElroy, those dynamics made the choice difficult, but the environment gave him clarity. “It’s close. Oregon is one of the three most talented teams in the country. But I’m taking Penn State at home. The veteran roster, the White Out atmosphere, and the chance for Allar to prove himself give the Nittany Lions the edge.”

Coaching Track Records And Quarterback Contrast

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning has built a national contender in just four years, amassing a 39–6 record and proving himself in big games with a 10–6 mark against ranked opponents.

Across the field, Franklin has stacked seven top-12 finishes and four New Year’s Six bowl wins but has struggled against the sport’s elite, carrying a 3–17 record versus top-10 opponents. This matchup provides another chance to rewrite that narrative.

Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

At quarterback, Dante Moore brings accuracy and efficiency to the Ducks. After transferring from UCLA and learning behind Dillon Gabriel, he has flourished under offensive coordinator Will Stein, completing nearly 75% of his passes with an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Allar’s profile is different. The 6'5", 235-pound signal-caller owns the lowest interception percentage in Penn State history but has yet to deliver a defining victory. His struggles in last year’s toughest games remain a focal point, and Saturday night sets the stage for him to change the conversation.

Matchups That Could Swing The Outcome

Penn State’s rushing tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen averages 194 yards per game and rarely takes negative plays. Behind them is a veteran line that will try to assert itself against Oregon’s defensive front, which has limited opponents to under 110 rushing yards per contest but has not faced backs of this caliber.

Explosiveness defines Oregon’s offense, which ranks near the top nationally with long runs and downfield completions. Moore distributes to a deep receiver group, including Dakorien Moore, Malik Benson, and Gary Bryant, while the Ducks’ line has surrendered just one sack all season.

Penn State’s defense, led by Amare Campbell, Dani Dennis-Sutton, Zuriah Fisher, Chaz Coleman, and Zane Durant, brings pressure that could disrupt that rhythm.

Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

For both teams, strength of schedule lingers as an unknown. Penn State has played one of the nation’s weakest slates so far, and Oregon’s résumé has not been much stronger. Facing adversity for the first time in 2025 could determine which side seizes control.

McElroy’s pick was Penn State, with the White Out setting, veteran roster, and Allar’s chance for a breakthrough all tilting the prediction toward the Nittany Lions.

Penn State hosts Oregon at Beaver Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET.

This article first appeared on CFB-HQ on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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