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USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Heisman tiers: Examining the top contenders for the award in 2023

By Eric Smithling | Last updated 8/26/23

With the college football season kicking off, here's a look at the early field of contenders for this year's Heisman based on odds provided by Oddschecker.

Quarterbacks are the overwhelming favorites, and they're broken up here by tiers, including the favorite, the top returning quarterbacks, the unknowns, as well as a sleeper name to remember.

The list ends with a group of non-quarterbacks with the best chance of winning the Heisman. Stick to the end for the four predicted finalists.

The favorite

Caleb Williams (+500)

As hard as it is to win two Heismans — like Williams is attempting — it's almost as difficult getting back to New York as a finalist.

Since 2007, seven underclassmen (Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Mark Ingram, Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston, Lamar Jackson, Bryce Young) won the Heisman prior to Williams, and of those seven, only three (Tebow, Manziel, Jackson) were a finalist the next season.

USC (+200) is the favorite to win the Pac-12 and after reaching the conference title game last year, is capable of going further. If so, Williams will not only make a return trip but will likely get a second trophy.

Top returning quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels, LSU (+1400); Quinn Ewers, Texas (+1400); Jordan Travis, Florida State (+1600); J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (+1800); Michael Penix Jr., Washington (+1800); Bo Nix, Oregon (+2000); Drake Maye, North Carolina (+2500)

Daniels and Ewers lead this group but between LSU and Texas, the Longhorns are more likely to win their conference (per Oddschecker), meaning Ewers has a greater probability of having the Heisman moments necessary to be a finalist.

Travis, using his sixth year of eligibility, is coming off his best season, and big things are expected of the Seminoles. His main issue could be the presence of Drake Maye in the ACC, arguably the most undervalued returning QB.

It will be hard for the Pac-12 to get more than one finalist but between Nix and Penix Jr., Nix is the one to back. His Heisman campaign is already underway and Oregon will continue to pull out all the stops to promote Nix's candidacy as the season unfolds.

As for McCarthy, his biggest problem is that he might not be the best Heisman candidate on his own team. More on that later.

The unknowns

Cade Klubnik, Clemson (+1700); Carson Beck, Georgia (+2000); Drew Allar, Penn State (+2500); Joe Milton, Tennessee (+3500)
These quarterbacks have decent odds of winning the Heisman, but all will take a leap of faith to back for the award. Beck is the likeliest to emerge as a finalist with Georgia's overall strong team around him.

Tennessee's offense is quarterback-friendly, allowing Milton an opportunity to finish the job that former QB Hendon Hooker started. Klubnik and Allar have tough competition in the ACC and Big Ten, respectively, and are likely a year away from being serious contenders.

"You're saying there's a chance"

Tanner Mordecai, Wisconsin (+15000)

If one team is best suited to recreate TCU's stunning turnaround in 2022, it's Wisconsin. Transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai was one of the nation's best passers last season at SMU and he could have a Max Duggan-esque ascendence this year.

Top non-QBs

Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State WR (+3000); Blake Corum, Michigan RB (+5000); Brock Bowers, Georgia TE (+7500); Harold Perkins Jr., LSU OLB (+15000)
Harrison Jr. is the best receiver in college football and will be extremely important to the Buckeyes offense as the team determines who replaces C.J. Stroud at quarterback. Wolverines running back Corum's numbers last season rivaled those of Heisman winners Ingram and Derrick Henry before a knee injury ended his campaign. With a full return to health, he'd be the likeliest Michigan finalist.

Tight ends are rarely ever in the conversation but Bowers should be Beck's top target for the Bulldogs. If they win the SEC again, his candidacy will receive a boost. Perkins Jr. showed how dominant he can be last year in a win against Arkansas. He'll need that kind of performance often this season to become the first defender since Charles Woodson in 1997 to win the Heisman.

Finalists prediction: Blake Corum, Quinn Ewers, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams

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