Heisman Trophy futures: Back or fade USC's Caleb Williams?

Caleb Williams lit up the college football world last season to become the seventh USC Trojan to win the Heisman Trophy. The star quarterback threw for 4,537 yards and 45 touchdowns, rushed for 382 yards and 10 scores, and led USC to an 11-3 record on his way to striking the Heisman pose.

Well, Williams is back for his junior season, and he's been pegged as the +500 betting favorite to repeat as the Heisman winner. Bettors may be tempted to load up on Williams ahead of his third year in Lincoln Riley's system, but I'm here to tell you that wouldn't be a wise strategy. 

In the 87-year history of the Heisman Trophy, only one player — Ohio State running back Archie Griffin — won the award twice. Griffin went back-to-back in 1974 and 1975, but his second triumph is still one of the most puzzling Heisman decisions ever made. In 1975, Griffin finished the season with 262 carries, 1,450 rushing yards, and only four touchdowns. Here's how the following three players in the Heisman voting fared that season:

2. Chuck Muncie, RB, California: 228 carries, 1,460 yards, 13 TDs

3. Ricky Bell, RB, USC: 385 carries, 1,957 yards, 13 TDs

4. Tony Dorsett, RB, Pittsburgh: 255 carries, 1,686 yards, 13 TDs

One could argue all three players deserved the Heisman over Griffin in 1975. But that's not all. Griffin's OSU teammate, Pete Johnson, rushed for 1,059 yards and led the country with 25 rushing touchdowns that year. The two-headed rushing attack led Ohio State to an 11-0 record and a Rose Bowl appearance, which is what ultimately set Griffin above the other contenders. 

All this to say the Heisman voters don't prefer to double up on winners, and the one time they did, it was a mistake. Williams will have to improve upon his monster statistical season in 2022 and lead USC to a 10-2 record at worst to go back-to-back. I don't envision that happening, so let's fade Williams with a few deeper-priced Heisman hopefuls.