Houston vs. Oklahoma State: Pick vs. Spread and Top Storylines

The Houston Cougars have already matched their win total from each of the past two seasons, entering Saturday’s Oct. 11 matchup against Oklahoma State with a 4-1 record. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have stumbled to a 1-4 start and recently parted ways with longtime head coach Mike Gundy.

Oklahoma State will take on the Cougars at home on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on HBO MAX and TNT, as Houston enters the conference showdown as 14.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 48.5 total points. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.

Two Key Players to Watch

Connor Weigman (QB, Houston)

After transferring from Texas A&M in the offseason, quarterback Conner Weigman has been a key catalyst in Houston’s fast start. He’s thrown for over 150 yards in each of the Cougars’ wins and added 148 rushing yards as a dual-threat playmaker. Following a rough outing last week, Weigman will need to bounce back strong if Houston hopes to stay in the hunt for a conference title. With Oklahoma State struggling, this weekend presents the perfect opportunity for Weigman and the Cougars to reset and make a statement.

Rodney Fields Jr. (RB, Oklahoma State)

One of the few bright spots for Oklahoma State’s offense has been freshman running back Rodney Fields Jr., who broke onto the scene in Week 2 with a 113-yard performance against Tulsa. Houston’s run defense struggled last week, giving up over 200 yards on the ground to Texas Tech. If the Cowboys hope to pull off the upset, establishing the run will be key to settling their offense, and Fields could be in for a heavy workload.

Two Key Storylines

Houston’s Rise Under Willie Fritz

In just his second season at the helm, head coach Willie Fritz has already made significant strides with the Houston program. Despite last week’s setback, the Cougars own convincing wins over Colorado and Oregon State, two quality Power Five opponents, proving they belong in the conversation. The real test now is whether they can sustain that success through the grind of Big 12 play. Facing a dismantled Oklahoma State team presents a prime opportunity to head into the second half of the season at 5-1.

Can Oklahoma State Turn the Corner After Mike Gundy’s Exit?

Since moving on from Gundy in September, the Cowboys have entered a new era following his 21-season tenure at the helm. The Cowboys are off to a 1-4 start, struggling to get things going on offense and find their identity as a team. With new leadership now in place, the focus shifts to a tough test against a resurgent Houston squad. Whether this group can regroup and spark a turnaround remains to be seen, but the post-Gundy era is underway.

Prediction: Houston 41, Oklahoma State 17

Houston is the more complete and confident team right now. Weigman has the weapons to expose a shaky Cowboys defense, and OSU’s offense hasn’t shown enough consistency to keep pace, especially after parting ways with Gundy. Unless Fields Jr. has a monster game and the Cowboys force multiple turnovers, it’s hard to see Oklahoma State staying close on the road. Expect the Cougars to control this one from early on.