How Predictable Was the Minnesota Loss?

Preseason, I immediately considered the short week, the road trip, P.J. Fleck’s record against Nebraska, and ultimately concluded that it probably wouldn’t go well. The problem lies somewhere else, though. Fleck hasn’t handed the Huskers the 15 losses that currently sit under the “L” column on Matt Rhule's record at Nebraska. Out of the 15, Fleck owns two of them. And when thinking about the root cause of a performance like we saw, I usually end up evaluating the mental side of the program.

Let’s break it down

For our preseason predictions, I came up with a “pucker factor” for every team on Nebraska’s schedule, including Nebraska. I know you’d be shocked to hear that Nebraska finished almost dead last (behind Cincinnati of all people) in this category amongst the P4 programs they’d be facing. The “pucker factor” looked at one score wins, one score losses, how many games the team has lost with the potential to clinch a bowl game, and the overall win percentage of their opponents. I was on paternity leave, so I had too much time; just bear with me.

The stats tell you that what happened on Friday, while shocking, was rather predictable. Maybe not how bad it looked, but the loss. There is something about Nebraska when it gets the spotlight or goes up against someone that is (on paper, or in the rankings) better than them, or when there is something to play for that derails any kind of progress that we assume is just on the horizon.

Let’s be honest, this has been happening for so long that it’s hard to just look at the last three years and assume this is just a Matt Rhule thing, but it’s interesting to look at.

Under Matt Rhule:

• 1-10 in bowl clenching games
• 4-11 in one score games
• 1-2 while being ranked (win was against Northern Iowa 24’)
• 0-7 against ranked opponents
• 3-9 on the road

There is something in the water, folks. If the conditions aren’t perfect (at home, not ranked, not against a ranked opponent, not for a bowl game, and not against PJ Fleck or Kirk Ferentz), you can probably bet that whatever the narrative going into the game is, it is safest to prepare your heart for what the odds will likely show.

For me, the upcoming game against Northwestern has the perfect conditions, again, regardless of the narrative that the cats are on a hot streak. I think at this point, looking at the mental side of things is where I’m going to put my money. Ranked USC under the lights in primetime? Look out.

The benefit of the doubt lies within the evidence. The performance on Friday was shocking, and I found myself begging for the end as the sacks mounted and the heads hung low on the sidelines. I refuse to believe, however, that what we watched was suddenly going to turn into the norm based on the Cincinnati, Michigan State, and Maryland game this year. The loss is one thing, but I think it shocked so many people because it was just a bad dream.

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