How the ESPN FPI Views Penn State Ahead of the 2025 Season

ESPN's first College Football Power Index ratings of 2025 held the status quo for Penn State football, despite all the recent praise for the Nittany Lions' offseason moves. Penn State is fifth in the FPI ratings released in early June, the same spot in which they closed the 2024 season in the AP Top 25.

The Nittany Lions enter the summer ranked behind Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama in the ESPN's College Football Power Index, a predictive model that analyzes teams' strengths against each other to project performance. According to this FPI iteration, Penn State has a 63.8 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 7.6 percent chance to win the national championship. The Nittany Lions' projected win total of 10.2 is slightly behind that of Ohio State (10.4).

ESPN's FPI has had a soft spot for Penn State since 2023. That year, the Nittany Lions were fourth in the final regular-season ratings, ahead of playoff participants Alabama and Texas, after going 10-2. Last June, Penn State was sixth in the early FPI, behind fellow playoff participants Georgia, Oregon, Texas and Ohio State. Alabama, which was fifth at the time, did not make the playoff.

Penn State's offense loses ground in the FPI

Interestingly, despite retaining a strong collection of offensive talent, the Nittany Lions fell two spots in the FPI ratings to No. 6. Their FPI rating of 11.3 sat just behind Ohio State (11.6) and Miami (11.4). But among those teams, Penn State is the only one with a returning starting quarterback in Drew Allar. The Nittany Lions also brought back 1,000-yard rushers in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and five offensive linemen with starting experience.

The FPI offensive ratings are top-heavy with SEC teams. Texas is a the clear No. 1, with a rating of 14.1, followed by Georgia and Alabama.

Defensively, Penn State moved up one FPI spot to No. 7. The Nittany Lions don't return as much defensive experience as they do on offense but did hire Jim Knowles from Ohio State as their new coordinator. Texas also has the nation's highest-rated defense, according to the FPI.

ESPN also likes Penn State's 2026 recruiting class

ESPN ranks Penn State's 2026 class at No. 4 for the cycle, behind USC, Ohio Notre Dame and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions have six players ranked in the ESPN 300, led by 4-star receiver Davion Brown at No. 70. ESPN also praised Penn State's in-state recruiting, which includes offensive tackle Kevin Brown (79th).

Elsewhere on the ESPN 300, running back Messiah Mickens is 134th, safety Matt Sieg is 150th, quarterback Troy Huhn is 198th and quarterback Peyton Falzone is 235th. All but Huhn, who is from California, are among the top-ranked players in Pennsylvania.

The Nittany Lions open the 2025 season at home Aug. 30 vs. Nevada. Penn State plays three non-conference games and has a bye week before hosting Oregon on Sept. 27 for the annual White Out game at Beaver Stadium. Penn State is favored vs. the Ducks in their Big Ten championship-game rematch but is an underdog Nov. 1 at Ohio State.