'If Not Now, When?': The Importance of Going 4-0 In October for Nebraska Football

Jack: I mean, I certainly understand the first part of it. It's hard to fully believe they're going to do it in all four of them until they do it. So, I mean, I absolutely agree and understand that point of view. I would slightly disagree with you in that I think 3-1 still allows the door open for there to be clear, consensus improvement somewhere close to the expectation of year three Matt Rhule.

Now it leaves work to do; no doubt about that. But I do think 3-1 still allows that. 4-0 pretty much clinches it, right?

Josh: Yeah. They’re 7-1 if they go 4-0.

Jack: To get “year three Matt Rhule,” how would you define that? How would you define him living up to the hope of year three Matt Rhule? Is it a win? Is it eight wins? Could eight wins be year three Matt Rhule?

Josh: I think that that's like the lowest that I would go, and I would need to see it. I need to see how it unfolds before I can definitively say yes or no. I've always used it as nine [wins].

Jack: Well, if they got four, and they still have UCLA on the schedule, it wouldn't clinch it. They'd have to win one more difficult game, right?

Josh: Yeah, they'd have to beat USC, they'd have to be Penn State, or they would have to beat Iowa.

Jack: They'd have to get one of those three, assuming they'd beat UCLA, which they should.

Josh: They will. Look, guys, I know that everybody loves being down.

Jack: You never know.

Josh: I know everyone loves being like, “They could lose.” And they did last year. This UCLA team is among the worst conference opponents Nebraska has ever played. We [on Unsportsmanlike Conduct on 1620 the Zone] did a thing [Tuesday] with [Michael] Bruntz. We were trying to figure it out. We were looking at some of the Baylor teams from the early 2000s. We were looking at the Purdue teams from the Darrell Hazell experience.

This UCLA team is garbage. They just went and lost to Northwestern. Northwestern is garbage. So, they're bad. They're going to win that game, so whatever record you want to put together, count that as well.

Jack: I'd just say 3-1 still leaves work to do, right? You're going to have to have a good, like a good, back third of the season. 4-0 makes it pretty likely that you're gonna be there. So, that's the difference. But if you're less than that, it's trouble. I'm not saying they're making a change, but I'm just saying, in terms of getting “year three Matt Rhule” or clear consensus improvement from last year, you've gotta be 3-1 or 4-0 to get that.

Josh: Dave Feit writes, “I have serious issues with the word disappointed. Nebraska is not gone 4-0 in October since 2001.” Now I would say this, Jack, for me it is less about the record. It is more about beating teams that they are going to be favored to beat. And [a subscriber] just asked, “How is Nebraska projected to be favored over Minnesota?”

Jack: Everybody’s been saying that. I don't know.

Josh: Because all of the analytics right now have Nebraska favored.

Jack: But if they would lose one of their next two games, they'd be the underdog in that game.

Josh: Sure, but I'm not viewing it that way. I'm [viewing] them as winning the next two games, and then they'll be favored.

Jack: Do you think they’ll be favored over Maryland, too, even if they would both win? Or just right now?

Josh: Yeah, just like Cincinnati's favored over Iowa State, even though Iowa State's undefeated this weekend. [A subscriber] said, “Minnesota is not great.” They're not. They're having a rough season. They almost lost to Rutgers this weekend, so that's how I'm viewing it.

Because I know we have done these various debates, Jack, over the years. And we kind of get bogged down into why should you expect Nebraska to win? Why? And I understand all that, and I agree with all of you.

Jack: The metrics now seem to favor them.

Josh: This is more about it is time for the program to take a step forward. That's all I am trying to say. I just think we have reached the point in the Matt Rhule experience where either he needs, and I'm not asking for a firing here, but it's time. Is it not time for Nebraska to start doing these types of things with Matt Rhule leading the way? I think it is.

Jack: Yes, but I believe 6-2 at that point after the first eight games; [going] 3-1 in the second four, still allows the door to be open for that, is all I'm saying. It doesn't make that impossible. Like I said, it takes some work, but if you went and beat UCLA and Iowa to end the season, then what's that look like? If you lose a close game to USC at home and lose to Penn State on the road, which everyone probably thinks you will.

Josh: Hey, you're 8-4. You finish with an Iowa win. I people would be mostly happy with that.

Jack: And you're going to like Tampa for a bowl game.

Josh: Yeah, I think people are mostly excited about that. I don't think that people would have a problem.

Jack: It would be a clear step forward still.

Josh: Honestly, I think whatever the record is, finishing with a win over Iowa will erase a lot of the sins, or it will like double-stamp the improvement if they finish with a win over Iowa. That will do so much for the psyche of this place.

Jack: It’s a double game.

Josh: Yeah, 8-4 with a win over Iowa; does that make you feel better than going 9-3 with a loss to Iowa?

Jack: It’s like when you're playing Scrabble and you get a double word score. It's worth two wins.

Josh: Sure. [A subscriber] says, “If not now, when? Next year?” I think, Jack, that's the point that I'm ultimately trying to make. And I feel like I am reaching across the aisle to the more negative folks and saying, “You should be expecting this to happen.” Like if not now, when? But I also understand why you won't expect them or why you're going to doubt them to do so. I understand it. I get it entirely.

Jack: I mean, I generally agree with you. I'm just not ready to close the door on the season if it's 3-1. Close the door on there being legitimate consensus improvement from last year. Or something that feels like what we hope for with Matt Rhule year three.

Josh: 3-1 would mean beating a team in Michigan State who's beaten you the last few times you played them. Maryland, they beat you the last time you played them. It just means beating a combination of teams that have for the most part owned you, which would really feel good.

Jack: If they get 4-0, it should feel really good to people. People shouldn't minimize that after the fact, which they will. They'll go back and be like, “yeah, Michigan State sucked,” right? All these teams. Yeah. Too bad. We're not there.

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