Illinois vs Purdue Prediction: Can the Illini Build Off the Big Win?

How To Watch Illinois vs Purdue

Saturday, October 4, 2025
Game Time: 12:00 PM ET
TV: BTN
Location: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN

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Why Illinois Will Win

What did Illinois do right against USC that it didn't do against Illinois? For starters, it got back its ... starters, at least in the secondary.

The Illini were banged up on defense against the Hoosiers, and while a fully healthy team probably wouldn't have meant a win, it would've kept the game from getting out of hand.

The Illinois offense took off against the Trojans. Quarterback Luke Altmyer was fantastic, the line gave him plenty of time to work, and he completed 78% of his passes for 331 yards and three scores.

Purdue isn't taking the ball away, the pass defense has been hit for over 200 yards in each of the last three games, and as long as the Illinois offensive front can do its job against ...

Why Purdue Will Win

The Boilermaker pass rush has to be great. 

It didn't do much to get to CJ Carr in the Notre Dame backfield, but it wasn't bad at pressuring USC's Jayden Maiava. The secondary was hit hard by the Trojans down the field, but the team hung tough in the 33-17 loss. 

Purdue got down early, but hung around to at least stay in range early in the fourth quarter. To do that, quarterback Ryan Browne needs to be sharp. 

He's been hitting 63% of his throws, but he can't throw picks like he did against USC - Illinois only has two picks on the year - and he has to keep things moving with the mid-range passing game like Maiava did last week.

Can Illinois or Purdue Run the Ball?

Purdue ran on Southern Illinois, but that's been about it. The ground hasn't worked in any of the three games against FBS teams, and it won't get going against the Illini.

Illinois hasn't been great on the ground - it's been too good when Altmyer is rolling - but it'll rumble for well over four yards per carry to balance this out in a good fight of a win.

It might not be like last year's crazy 50-49 Illinois win, but it'll be fun.

Illinois vs Purdue Prediction, Betting Lines

Illinois 34, Purdue 24
Line: Illinois -9.5, o/u: 57.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 2.5

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

- CFP Top 12 & Projections