Iowa's Bowl Chances Get Massive Upgrade

Last week, ESPN’s FPI measurement painted a scary picture concerning the Big Ten side, as FPI gave Iowa a damning 45.8% chance of reaching six or more wins. However, after Iowa’s conference-opening win, those numbers have skyrocketed. 

This morning’s FPI update has seen head coach Kirk Ferentz’s side jump up to a 73.1% chance of achieving six or more wins. This sees the Hawkeyes move up to the 11th-best chance in the conference and has pushed their overall FPI (8.6) eight ranks higher than last week’s, as it now sits just outside the top 25 at 31.

For those needing a reminder of how ESPN’s FPI measurement is calculated. 

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”

Here is how ESPN produces its “six-plus wins” measurement. 

“Percent of season simulations in which a team won at least 6 games (typically bowl-eligible).”

Numbers don’t always spell success, but in this early-season stretch that we are still in, they can give a good barometer of how a team may fare. 

This week, Iowa is faced with arguably its toughest test of the season to date, as Kinnick Stadium will play host to the Indiana Hoosiers (4-0) (1-0). 

Last season, under head coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers culminated an 11-2 record, which propelled them to the College Football Playoff, before ultimately falling to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a 27-17 loss. 

This season, Indiana touts one of the nation’s best-performing quarterbacks, Fernando Mendoza, who has solidified himself as a Heisman candidate. 

Mendoza has already tallied 14 touchdowns and 975 yards with a clean zero interceptions, in an offense that has totaled 146 points in three FBS competitions thus far. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM. 

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