Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz huddles with his team during a football game against the Indiana Hoosiers Sept. 27, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Iowa's Path to a Bowl Game After Second Loss

Originally posted on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI
By Jordon Lawrenz | Last updated Sep 30, 2025 7:00 AM ET

Wins over Albany, UMass, and Rutgers have led the Iowa Hawkeyes to their 3-2 record. Despite having two losses, both have come to ranked opponents. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is now 0-11 against the last 11 ranked teams he's played, but there's no shame in losing by a combined eight points to No. 16 Iowa State and No. 11 Indiana.

When the College Football Playoffs come around, there's a high chance Iowa's losses will come to teams in the mix. The Hawkeyes toughest competition is yet to come as they await No. 7 Penn State and No. 2 Oregon. The Ducks just defeated the Nittany Lions in double overtime, 30-24.

HC James Franklin will bring his No. 7 ranked team to Kinnick Stadium on October 18. No. 11 Indiana saw the Hoosiers come to town as they were the first ranked team to play there since 2022. This season, Hawkeyes fans are in for a treat as the Ducks will also play at Iowa on November 8.

While the Hawkeyes could certainly compete, and potentially steal a win in either of those games, it's safe to assume those will result in losses. Just counting those two games, that would put Iowa at 3-4. Knowing they need six, potentially seven wins to secure a bowl game appearance, Iowa would need three or four more wins.

Thankfully for Iowa, USC is no longer ranked. The Trojans just fell to No. 23 Illinois, a team that Indiana embarrassed the week prior. If the Trojans continue to fall, that makes their date on November 18 that much easier.

After the bye, Iowa heads to Wisconsin. The Badgers are currently 2-2, but will likely fall to 2-3 as they play at The Big House on October 4. With how the Badgers have looked in their last two games, it would take a miracle for them to bring down No. 20 Michigan.

Assuming Iowa beats Wisconsin, that puts them at 4-2. A loss to Penn State makes it 4-3, but that game against the Nittany Lions is one of three straight at home. From there, they'll play a Minnesota team that could very well be 5-2. It'll be a tough test for Iowa, but it's another winnable game.

If Iowa falls to the Golden Gophers, their quest for a bowl game gets much more difficult. There's a very real possibility this team could drop four games to Penn State, Minnesota, Oregon, and USC. There's also a chance they take down two, if not three of those opponents.

While it's far too early to predict how 3-1 Michigan State and Nebraska will be by late-November, it's not hard to see how Iowa has their work cut out for them. At this point, it's easiest to assume they will lose to any combination of Penn State, Oregon, and USC, picking up enough wins against Wisconsin, Minnesota, MSU, and Nebraska to make a bowl game.

This article first appeared on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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