Is Arch Manning Really a Prodigy?

Farrell made an appearance on The Daily Wire’s “Crain & Company” podcast, where he made his controversial assessment of Manning, “If his name was Arch Smith, I think he’d be a high three-star quarterback. He plays a very low level of competition. He hasn’t progressed. He had a really good freshman season. I wouldn’t say regression, but he hasn’t progressed, and when he’s had to step up against other competition, especially in the playoff game where he looked awful, it just hasn’t translated.”

Eventually, Farrell elaborated on this assessment in his daily Fact or Fiction column, where he clarified his comments.

“If scouts received film of Arch Manning without his name on it they would rank him as a high 3-star. And then I said with the name, training and the fact that all Manning QBs pan out, I’d have him as a 4 star. I originally had him as a 5-star (see below) but after continued review of QBs in this class and a look at all of them, I’ve changed my mind. But he’s not a 3 star prospect. He’d just be rated that way by everyone if he name was Arch Smith.”

—Mike Farrell

Farrell has since softened his tone, but in a lot of ways, he may have been onto something. Is Arch Manning a quarterback prodigy or simply overrated by his surname?

On the surface, there is only one football and one quarterback who can play at the same time. Me telling you this is akin to telling you the sky is blue.

Texas may indeed have two prodigies in Ewers, who was a prodigy in his own right out of the Class of 2021 as the top prospect in the country, and Manning, and I get how Sarkisian wants to reward his incumbent, but does it go against one of his biggest mentors competitive beliefs.

Sarkisian coached under Pete Carroll at Southern California between 2001 to 2003 as well as from 2005 to 2008, and one of Carroll’s signature trademarks of his program was “Competition Tuesdays.”

Carroll’s philosophy is explained in his book Win Forever, in which he emphasizes a culture where individuals compete against themselves, forcing themselves to stay ahead of the competition around them internally. The external competition wasn’t even in focus because Carroll believed if you had the right players and if they develop the desire to compete, that desire will translate to defeating the competition.

I am not saying Sarkisian doesn’t believe in this or doesn’t embrace the competitive fire Carroll had, or even “The Process” he learned at Alabama under Nick Saban. It does begin to stoke the fires of the notion that Arch Manning was overrated by many recruiting analysts due to the fact that he, in Year 2, cannot push the incumbent Ewers for the job.

Maybe Farrell was right in his claim about Manning. But let's not jump to that conclusion too hastily.

Joe Burrow, who 247Sports' Petagna compared Manning to, wasn’t a prodigy out of the gate. He had to transfer, and after a year in LSU’s system, Burrow clicked and had arguably the finest season a collegiate quarterback ever had and became a legend.

Burrow needed time to develop; maybe Manning needs time as well, and Sarkisian sees that.

Part of the definition of a prodigy is an individual who attains mastery in their field in their youth. In college football, we have seen Trevor Lawrence as a true freshman quarterback Clemson to a national championship, and in doing so, living up to the prodigy label.

To me, Manning isn't a prodigy out of the gate; Burrow wasn't either. But like Burrow, he can develop into a prodigy - the latter half of the definition is something that is extraordinary, something Burrow's 2019 season was.

Manning hopefully is grounded from having family who have achieved the highest of highs in football and will avoid the transfer portal, something my colleague Scott Salomon speculated Manning may do back in November.

We are going to find out Manning's humility as Ewers has been proclaimed the starter heading into the season, but eventually, the reins will be handed to Manning. We will eventually find out if Manning lives up to the five-star Burrow comparison or if he is just Arch Smith.