Jim Harbaugh is not on the hot seat, but he is at a crossroads

At some point as our public discourse about sports drifted from the talk radio airwaves onto the click-driven badlands of the internet, prognosticating the impending downfall of college football coaches became a cottage industry. I get it, of course. I understand that bloodlust and schadenfreude have been built into the foundation of the sport since a few blokes from Rutgers chased some Princeton snobs out of town back in 1869.

However, here’s a disclaimer: If you’re seeking another story about another coach who may be on the proverbial chopping block at the end of the year, this is not that story. In fact, the one thing University of Michigan president Mark Schlissel may have proved earlier this season by declaring Jim Harbaugh was “not on the hot seat” is the fact that the term “hot seat” is now ubiquitous language even among the academic elites.

So no, Jim Harbaugh is not on the hot seat. But then, what is Jim Harbaugh at this moment in his career, in the midst of his fourth season at Michigan, with the Wolverines on the verge of yet another watershed moment this weekend against Wisconsin? He is not in danger of being fired because for Michigan to fire Harbaugh — the quintessential “Michigan Man”— would essentially be akin to admitting it's never going to get this thing right. 

And he is presumably nowhere near quitting, either, because for Harbaugh to leave Michigan now would be to admit that for the first time in his career, he couldn’t actually figure this out. Couple that with the contentious retreat from the San Francisco 49ers that led him to Michigan in the first place, and people might start to wonder if perhaps Harbaugh himself is the problem.

It’s a weird spot for a major college football team to be in. In some ways, it could still work out just fine. Michigan is 5-1 so far this season, with its only loss coming at the hands of an undefeated Notre Dame team. It’s completely possible that the Wolverines ride the momentum of an improving offense and overpower a Wisconsin team that has shown an inability so far this year to adhere to its formula of bludgeoning opponents into submission on both sides of the ball. It’s also possible that the Wolverines could emerge unscathed from a Murderer’s Row of games against Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State and then beat Ohio State at home to end the year.

It’s only slightly far-fetched, then, to believe that Michigan could be good enough to make the College Football Playoff. It’s also not far-fetched to believe that Michigan could wind up 8-5, just as it did in 2017. And it’s possible the Wolverines could split the difference and wind up 10-3, as they did in Harbaugh’s first two seasons at Michigan.

None of those possibilities would impact Harbaugh’s job security one bit. But that’s not what this is about right now. What it’s about, for Michigan, is proving that the deliberate and oft-amusing bluster that defined Harbaugh’s first three years on the job was meant to serve a purpose. What it’s about is proving that Harbaugh, who is 0-3 against Ohio State and 1-2 against Michigan State in his career, can elevate this program to a level where it can provide a legitimate threat to Ohio State’s hegemony over the conference.

So far, Penn State hasn’t proved that it’s at Ohio State’s level. So far, Michigan State has struggled to stay consistent year after year. So far, Wisconsin has yet to definitively prove that it’s not merely the beneficiary of an assignment to the conference’s anemic western half. There’s still an opening here. But a loss this weekend could amplify the queasy feeling among Michigan fans that perhaps Harbaugh is not "The One They Thought He Was" when he was hired and that perhaps if Harbaugh is not "The One," then there is no such thing as "The One" anymore.

There is not a hot seat, then, for Harbaugh because both sides have too much at stake. Michigan needs Harbaugh to re-establish its relevance, and Harbaugh, at least for now, needs Michigan to avoid what would be a crushing personal failure. They’re stuck with each other. The only question now is whether this Saturday marks the soft beginning of a protracted endgame or just simply the end of the beginning.