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Josh Pate names team most at risk of upset in Week 2
College football analyst Josh Pate views Arizona State as the team most at risk of an upset in Week 2. Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Josh Pate names team most at risk of upset in Week 2

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI  |  By Matt De Lima  |  Last updated Sep 5, 2025 3:00 PM ET

Josh Pate sees danger signs for Arizona State in Week 2. The ESPN college football analyst said the Sun Devils’ trip to Mississippi State carries the highest upset potential of the weekend.

“Arizona State favored by less than a touchdown on the road,” Pate said during his Thursday show. “Arizona State was very isolated in offensive production numbers last week against Northern Arizona. But if they get on the road here in Cowbell country and Jordan Tyson gets limited, do they have the depth of playmaker?

"Do they have the depth in the wide receiver room? Can they run the ball consistently here? Because Mississippi State with a healthy [offensive line] is a pretty solid team… I think this is going to be a fight. Four-quarter fight. I got it at 8.5 on the upset alert concern meter.”

The Sun Devils are ranked No. 12 in the AP Top 25 after an underwhelming win over Northern Arizona. Mississippi State is 1-0 after handling Southern Miss, and Davis Wade Stadium will host a high-stakes September showdown under the lights.

Mississippi State Seeks Revenge Against Arizona State

This game has history. Arizona State beat Mississippi State 30-23 last season, a game that ended with Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo criticizing the Bulldogs’ defense.

The build-up this week has only added to the tension. ASU coach Kenny Dillingham made comments interpreted as digs at Starkville, and his players practiced with ringing cowbells to simulate Saturday night’s environment.

Matt Bush/Special to Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For the Bulldogs, the opportunity is massive. A win would mark the program’s first home victory over a top-10 nonconference opponent since 1967.

Mississippi State quarterback Blake Shapen is back from injury and looked sharp in the opener. Running backs Davon Booth and Fluff Bothwell combined for three touchdowns, and the Bulldogs’ defense was strong against the run. If Mississippi State contains Tyson and limits quarterback Sam Leavitt’s rushing, the path to an upset is there.

Arizona State Needs Leavitt And Tyson To Deliver

The Sun Devils will rely heavily on the connection between quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson. Leavitt accounted for four touchdowns last week while Tyson posted 141 receiving yards and two scores. Both are among the most dynamic players in the country, and their production could be the difference.

ASU is banged up, with several starters uncertain, including right tackle Max Iheanachor and wideout Jalen Moss. That could stress depth against a physical SEC team. At the same time, ASU has more top-end talent than Mississippi State, and Leavitt’s dual-threat ability makes every drive dangerous.

Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

This matchup is about proving staying power for a top-10 program on the road. For Mississippi State, it’s about seizing a rare chance to topple a national contender. The outcome will shape early playoff chatter and tell us whether Pate’s upset warning was prophetic or premature.

Arizona State carries the ranking, but Mississippi State carries the edge of history and environment. Saturday night in Starkville will show which one matters most.

Read more on College Football HQ


This article first appeared on CFB-HQ on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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