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Kansas State vs. Iowa State football game prediction 2025 Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kansas State vs. Iowa State football prediction: Who wins, and why?

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By James Parks | Last updated Aug 22, 2025 3:13 PM ET

The 2025 college football season kicks off from the Emerald Isle with the latest edition of Farmageddon as Kansas State and Iowa State meet in this Week 0 matchup. Here’s what you should watch for, with our updated prediction for the game.

Just one Saturday into the season, and the future of the highly-competitive Big 12 Championship picture could already take an early shape, as both these teams expect to be in the mix to make a run at the conference title this season.

And with a win in Arlington comes a golden ticket to the College Football Playoff.

That’s then, and this is now, but what happens now across the pond could prove more than a little influential in the months to come.

What can we expect when the Wildcats and the Cyclones face off in this Big 12 clash.

Here’s what you should watch for as Kansas State and Iowa State meet in this Week 0 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Kansas State vs. Iowa State prediction: What you need to know

Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

— Iowa State is 4-2 against Kansas State in their last six meetings and won two straight and three of the last four.

— Iowa State was No. 1 nationally in pass defense last season, and held K-State’s Avery Johnson to 43 percent completion a year ago, but also allowed 3 touchdown passes.

— Rocco Becht returns to quarterback the Iowa State offense, but he’ll be without his two thousand-yard receivers as Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins both turned pro.

— Kansas State’s offensive line ranked No. 10 last fall in sacks allowed, but is replacing three starting blockers in front of Johnson.

— Johnson thre w a Kansas State record 25 touchdown passes in his first year as the starter, and the Wildcats added wide receivers in the transfer portal to help him out.

— Becht has covered more than 6,600 yards and scored 48 touchdowns the last two seasons.

— Kansas State ranked No. 11 in FBS last season in rushing, totaling over 6 yards per carry and averaging nearly 216 yards per game on the ground.

— Conversely, the Cyclones were 110th in the country against the run, allowing almost 189 yards per game from opponents and more than 5.3 yards per touch.

— Iowa State has covered the spread in 7 of its last 10 meetings against the Wildcats, and won 5 o f the last 6 as underdogs.

— The Wildcats have lost in 4 of its last 5 against the spread opposite the Cyclones, so Iowa State can play close games.

— Kansas State ranked 17th in yards per play and was top 40 in EPA per play, yards per run, rush success rate, and first down rate last fall.

— Dylan Edwards ran for 546 yards last season, ranking third among Kansas State rushers, but he led the squad with 7.6 yards per carry on just 74 attempts.

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

What the analytics say

Most computer models are siding with the Wildcats over the Cyclones in the opener.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Kansas State comes out ahead in the majority 62.3 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

The other 37.7 percent of sims forecast Iowa State will pull off the upset and avoid the 0-1 start against the Wildcats.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Kansas State is projected to be just 4.2 points better than Iowa State on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More... Kansas State vs. Iowa State prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Kansas State is a 3.5 point favorite against Iowa State, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -166 and for Iowa State at +138 to win the game outright.

Kansas State vs. Iowa State prediction: Who wins?

College football fans get a good quarterback/running back matchup on both sides of the field in the Week 0 opener between these Big 12 rivals.

Between the two, Kansas State should have the overall offensive advantage behind Johnson and Edwards and after the Cyclones lost their two principal receiving threats.

Iowa State’s defensive front may not have been too dominant a year ago, but it still has some pieces who can make life difficult for K-State’s new blockers, and consequently, could throw the Wildcats’ offense off schedule early on.

Expect the Cyclones to lean more on the run to start out behind rusher Carson Hansen, but he’ll run into one of the strongest linebacking units in the country, and the Wildcats could stump Iowa State’s attempt to control things on the ground.

Kansas State has more weapons to rely o n and the defensive front seven definitely looks like the better of the two.

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