Louisiana vs TCU Prediction, Pick, New Mexico Bowl Odds for Saturday, Dec. 28

• Louisiana vs TCU Spread: TCU -10 (-105) · Louisiana +10 (-115)
• Louisiana vs TCU Over/Under: 59 Points
• Louisiana vs TCU Moneyline: Louisiana +290 · TCU -380

Louisiana vs TCU Preview

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Betting Preview: Question Marks Everywhere

Before we dive into some key metrics for the Ragin’ Cajuns, we must note that some of their key pieces won’t be available for this matchup. Here are some key players who won’t suit up, according to Stuckey’s opt-out and transfer portal tracker:

• Starting WR Harvey Broussard (signed with Houston)
• Starting WR Robert Williams
• Starting S Tyree Skipper
• Starting TE Terrence Carter
• TE Ty Stamey (138 snaps)
• RB Dre’lyn Washington (207 snaps)

Additionally, quarterback Ben Wooldridge’s injury, which was sustained before the conference championship, has kept him sidelined. The original timetable indicated that he’d be available for this contest. However, there are no clear signs that he will start, which means it will be freshman Daniel Beale leading the offense.

I have difficulty envisioning Louisiana moving the ball consistently throughout this matchup. During the regular season, Louisiana’s offense was quite successful. The Ragin’ Cajuns ranked inside the top 40 in the following offensive metrics:

• Line Yards
• Pass and Rush Success Rate
• Havoc Allowed
• Finishing and Quality Drives

Although those are all encouraging metrics, it is questionable as to whether we are going to see the same success. Without many key offensive starters and a big question mark at quarterback, I’m not quite sure how this offense will perform.

However, my biggest question is the defense.

The Horned Frogs had their ups and downs on offense throughout the season, but should be at full strength for this matchup, a bad sign for a Ragin’ Cajuns defense that ranked outside the top 100 in rush success rate, finishing drives and line yards allowed.

Louisiana ranked 124th in PFF Tackling, which usually correlates with allowing too many big plays.

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Offense Should Succeed

Head coach Sonny Dykes has made it clear that the majority of TCU’s roster is going to suit up for this game, a great sign for their chances to perform at a high level.

Receiver Jack Bech sustained an injury earlier in the season, but may be available to play. We won’t know for certain until kickoff, but that is something to remember. Meanwhile, receivr Savion Williams has NFL aspirations, which may cause him to opt out, but there is no official word.

That said, I think it is time to talk about how great of a matchup this is for TCU’s offense. TCU ranked inside the top 40 in rush and pass success rate, havoc allowed and finishing drives.

The Louisiana defense is excellent in coverage, but I think the Horned Frogs will be able to succeed on the ground. Quarterback Josh Hoover should have no trouble dicing up Louisiana’s defense and even though Louisiana’s defense did a good job of limiting pass explosives throughout the regular season, they haven’t faced a quarterback like Hoover.

Louisiana also gives up a ton of rushing explosives and its defensive line can’t stop the run. I see no reason why TCU’s offense can’t have their way with Louisiana’s defense.

On the defensive side of the ball, I have some questions for TCU’s defense, especially against the run. Louisiana may not have its starting quarterback, so we’ll see it rely on the run more often than not.

Usually, when that happens, you’d like to have a defense built to stop the run. However, the Horned Frogs proved throughout the regular season that they are incapable of doing that. They are one of the worst teams in the nation in Rush EPA per play and rushing explosiveness allowed.

Louisiana vs. TCU

Offense

Defense

Edge Rush Success 80 97

TCU Offense vs. Louisiana Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge Rush Success 49 133

Pace of Play / Other

Louisiana vs TCU Pick & Prediction

Given the uncertainty of Louisiana’s quarterback situation, I don’t feel comfortable laying a large number with TCU. It is encouraging that most of TCU’s starters will play, so I think the best betting approach for this matchup is to take TCU’s team total over.

If you examine TCU’s offensive metrics, you’ll see that it is one of the most underrated offenses in the country. Yes, they lacked explosiveness on the ground, but they had one of the best passing attacks in the nation.

I think Hoover will have a terrific day through the air, despite Louisiana’s strength on defense being in the secondary. Also, we could see many more runs from TCU’s offense, which will lead to explosives against a bad Louisiana rush defense.

Dykes seems like he wants to pour it on, so I’m going to take that into account.

Pick: TCU Team Total Over 34.5

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