LSU vs. Baylor Prediction

The 2024-25 college football postseason continues on Tuesday, Dec. 31 with LSU and Baylor meeting in the Texas Bowl. This game takes place at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. This is the 12th all-time meeting between the Tigers and Bears on the gridiron. LSU holds an 8-3 series edge over Baylor. However, these two teams have not played since 1985. 

Even with quarterback Jayden Daniels departing after winning the Heisman Trophy last season, LSU had hopes of a trip to the College Football Playoff in 2024. High expectations surrounded new quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and a revamped defense, but the Tigers opened the season with a loss to USC in Las Vegas before rallying for six straight wins. Although LSU worked its way back into contention, coach Brian Kelly's team lost three in a row, including a 42-13 blowout against Alabama. The Bayou Bengals did finish the regular season on a high note with wins over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, but the pressure will be on Kelly to get this team back into playoff contention in '25.

Baylor coach (and former LSU defensive coordinator) Dave Aranda sat squarely on the hot seat after a 3-9 record last year. However, Aranda's offseason tweaks paid big-time dividends. The Bears surged to an 8-4 finish by winning their final six games, including a 45-17 victory over Kansas in the regular season finale. Aranda's decision to take over play-calling duties on defense, along with the hire of Jake Spavital as offensive coordinator, helped Baylor show marked improvement on both sides of the ball.

Baylor is 14-13 in previous bowl appearances. The Bears are 4-2 in their last six postseason treks. LSU is 27-23-1 in bowl trips and has won two out of its last three postseason appearances.

LSU vs. Baylor

Texas Bowl
Location: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
Kickoff: Tuesday, Dec. 31 at 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Baylor -4
Over/Under: 59.5
Announcers: Roy Philpott, Sam Acho, and Taylor Davis 

Why LSU Will Win

LSU won't have starting offensive linemen Will Campbell or Emery Jones, receivers Kyren Lacy and CJ Daniels, and tight end Mason Taylor for Tuesday's game. Although that group of players is a significant setback to an offense that averaged over six yards a snap, the Tigers still have enough offensive firepower to move the ball on a Baylor secondary that ranked 68th nationally in pass defense success rate.

Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (3,739 yards and 26 TDs) is one of the best in the SEC and will be looking to finish the '24 season on a high note. With Lacy, Taylor, and Daniels out, greater contributions are needed from Aaron Anderson (53 catches), Zavion Thomas (20), and Chris Hilton.

LSU ranked last in the SEC in rushing offense this season, but considering the personnel absences at receiver, coordinator Joe Sloan could look to get running back Caden Durham (693 yards) and Josh Williams (440) more involved against a Baylor defense that allowed over 150 rushing yards a contest.

The extra time to prep for the Texas Bowl is a huge opportunity for coordinator Blake Baker to build on his scheme from the regular season. In his first year in Baton Rouge, Baker helped this defense take a step forward, holding SEC opponents to 26.3 points a game (down from 33) the previous fall.

The Bayou Bengals lost some depth in the secondary to the portal and key defensive backs Sage Ryan or Major Burns won't play. With personnel departures, getting aggressive (33 sacks this year) at the line of scrimmage is a must to slow Baylor's offense.

Why Baylor Will Win

Bowl games are all about motivation, and Baylor won't be lacking for it on Tuesday. The Bears were projected to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 this preseason but exceeded all expectations with an 8-4 finish. Aranda's team can build on that momentum with a strong finish in Houston, which could push expectations for this program into top 25 consideration for '25.

A shorthanded LSU defense will have its hands full with a balanced Baylor offense. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson thrived under Spavital's direction (2,626 yards and 26 TDs and 227 yards and four scores on the ground), with receivers Josh Cameron (44 catches), Ashtyn Hawkins (41), and Monaray Baldwin (23) a tough matchup for a LSU secondary that ranked No. 81 nationally in pass defense success rate.

Baylor's ground game averaged just over 188 yards a game this year and faces a favorable matchup against a LSU defense ranked 13th in the SEC versus the run. Running backs Bryson Washington (1,004 yards) and Dawson Pendergrass (608) should find ample room to operate.

With LSU missing a couple of key pieces along the line of scrimmage, look for Aranda and his defensive staff to turn up the pressure against Nussmeier. The Bears generated only 23 sacks this year but ranked No. 35 nationally in defensive success rate and were one of the best in the Big 12 on third downs and in the red zone. The Tigers struggled to run the ball all year, and with Nussmeier down a couple of linemen and receivers, the task of moving the ball against Baylor will only get harder on Tuesday afternoon.

Final Analysis

This matchup should be one of the better post-Christmas bowl games. LSU's missing pieces on both sides of the ball are significant, while Baylor's roster is largely at full strength. If Nussmeier can get adequate protection from a rebuilt line, the Tigers will have a chance to win this one in the fourth quarter. However, the motivation should be all on the Baylor sideline, with the balance of Robertson and the running game putting away this victory in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: Baylor 34, LSU 31