LSU vs. Baylor Prediction: Texas Bowl Betting Odds and Game Preview

LSU vs Baylor: How to Watch the Kinder's Texas Bowl, Game Preview

Date: Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
How To Watch: ESPN
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Teams: LSU (8-4), Baylor (8-4)
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Why Baylor Will Win

LSU is missing a ton. That’s par for the course for the program when it’s not in the CFP - which is every year outside of the 2019 season - but this version isn’t good enough to lose most of the top offensive linemen, leading receiver Kyren Lacy, and several other key parts.

Even with everyone in place this is an inconsistent LSU team. Baylor - for good and bad - doesn’t really have the players to transfer or opt out. It’s relatively intact, and that includes an offensive front that’s been terrific at keeping QB Sawyer Robertson from getting popped.

The ground game has controlled everything behind that BU line. The team is 6-0 when running for more than 170 yards, 8-1 when running for more than 108 - and the one loss was that heartbreaker to Colorado. But …

Why LSU Will Win

The Big 12 just wasn’t that great this season. Yeah, Baylor won a lot late, but it wasn’t like playing in the SEC.

And yeah, LSU is missing a slew of parts, but the lateness of this bowl helps. Kelly and the coaching staff appeared have patched together a decent starting five for the O line, the passing game should be solid with QB Garrett Nussmeier good enough to make up for the hit-or-miss running attack, and overall, it’s still LSU.

The talent is still there.

LSU’s offense is great on third downs and should keep pressing the Baylor secondary for a full four quarters. Baylor doesn’t grind the clock at all - it’s D is about to get taxed, but …

LSU vs Baylor: Who Will Win?

Turnovers. It might seem basic, but that’s probably it.

Both teams are 4-0 when they don’t turn the ball over. The difference is that Baylor forces takeaways, and LSU doesn’t. LSU is also 4-0 when forcing multiple turnovers, Baylor is 4-1 when it does.

Overall, the SEC has been better than the Big 12 this bowl season, LSU has more overall athleticism and should have the decent defensive front to hold up, and - again with the conference-shaming - Baylor’s wins over the second half of the season weren’t all that impressive.

This will be one of those find-a-way games for LSU. It won’t be easy, but it’ll get it done.

LSU vs Baylor Kinder's Texas Bowl Prediction, Betting Lines

Prediction: LSU 34, Baylor 27
Line: Baylor -3.5, o/u: 61.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 3.5
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