LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction: What the analytics say

LSU and Texas A&M square off in college football’s Week 9 action, playing in one of three ranked-on-ranked matchups on Saturday, all of which take place in the SEC.

Texas A&M is 7-0 for the first time since 1994 and playing generational football, all alone at the top of the SEC standings and walking a tightrope to stay perfect on the road to Atlanta.

In its way is an LSU squad advertised as a playoff contender back in the preseason, but which dipped to 2-2 in SEC play after a loss against Vanderbilt last weekend and not getting anything like the offensive production they thought they would.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction

Brian Kelly’s team could be on pace for a third loss if this model is correct, and so far this season, it has been.

Texas A&M is the favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in the majority 52.2 percent of the computer’s 20,000 simulations of the game.

That leaves LSU as the projected winner in the remaining 47.8 percent of sims.

The model had the Aggies emerge as the outright winner in 10,440 simulations of the game, while the Tigers edged out A&M in the other 9,560 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This one could come down to the narrowest of margins.

Texas A&M is projected to be just 0.3 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

LSU vs. Texas A&M future projections

LSU emerged as the No. 20 team in the index’s latest 136-team college football rankings, with just an 0.3 percent chance to win the SEC championship.

The model gives the Tigers a 14.2 percent shot to qualify for the College Football Playoff and projects they will win 7.7 games this season.

Texas A&M placed No. 10 in the computer’s national rankings, fourth in the SEC, with a strong 84.4 percent chance at the playoff, and is forecasted to win 10.2 games.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 71.4 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.