LSU vs. Wisconsin score prediction by college football expert model

One of the final matchups of the College Football Bowl Season brings us an intriguing SEC vs. Big Ten clash in the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl as LSU takes on Wisconsin with both teams looking to make a statement and end the season on a high note.

LSU went 9-3 this season and finished third in the SEC West standings, but did so behind one of college football's most electric offensive attacks, one led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, who went on to win the Heisman Trophy. Wisconsin also placed third in its division, going 7-5 in Luke Fickell's debut season as head coach, but struggled putting points on the board, ranking 104th in scoring offense.

What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to project the game.

LSU vs. Wisconsin prediction

The simulations favor the SEC challengers to win the game here.

SP+ estimates that LSU will defeat Wisconsin by a projected score of 31 to 22 and to win the game by an expected 8.8 points.

The model gives the Tigers a 70 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 381-354-14 (51.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

LSU comes into the game as 10 point favorites against Wisconsin, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 55.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for LSU -380 and for Wisconsin at +300.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Wisconsin +10
• LSU to win -380
• Bet under 55.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also favor the Tigers to beat their Big Ten opponents.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index suggests LSU will win the game in 81.4 percent of its simulations, while Alabama comes out ahead in the remaining 18.6 percent of sims.

By taking each team's scoring margins into account, the computer predicts that LSU will defeat Wisconsin by 14.5 points, enough to cover the spread.