Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Major College Football Program Predicted to Fire Iconic Head Coach

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Jaron Spor | Last updated Dec 4, 2025 11:53 AM ET

The 2025 college football coaching carousel has been one of the wildest in the sport's history. Several major jobs opened this cycle, including the Penn State Nittany Lions, Florida Gators, Auburn Tigers, LSU Tigers and the Ole Miss Rebels.

It seems that the situation may not be resolved just yet. According to Kalshi, the leading candidate for the next head coach to leave before next September is Bill Belichick, the head coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels, who has a 39% chance of being the one to go. He is closely followed by Sherrone Moore, the head coach of the Michigan Wolverines, and Derek Mason from Middle Tennessee, both of whom have a 24% chance.

When Belichick was hired, there was great excitement. The six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach had never coached at the college level; however, he is considered one of the best head coaches in NFL history.

It’s no secret that Belichick has faced challenges in Chapel Hill. In his first season as head coach, the Tar Heels finished with a disappointing 4-8 record, marking their worst performance since a 2-9 season in 2018. That year was also the last for Larry Fedora as the head coach.

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick on the sidelines.© Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Belichick was given a five-year contract worth $50 million this past offseason. The contract includes guaranteed money for the first three years. If North Carolina were to fire Belichick before Dec. 31, 2027, the school would have to pay him the full amount he was scheduled to receive up to that date. That would be just under $30 million, making it one of the more expensive buyouts in college football.

As the coaching carousel continues to shift, all eyes will remain on Chapel Hill to see whether North Carolina stays the course with Belichick or becomes the next major program to trigger another wave of movement across the college football landscape.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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